About: Complexity signatures in the COVID-19 epidemic: power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves

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About: Complexity signatures in the COVID-19 epidemic: power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Complexity signatures in the COVID-19 epidemic: power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves
Creator	Almeida, Francisco Duarte-Filho, Gerson Macêdo, Antônio Ospina, Raydonal Vasconcelos, Giovani Brum, Arthur
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	We apply a versatile growth model, whose rate of change is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and Asia. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may present a subexponential early growth but can also exhibit a similar subexponential (power-law) behaviour in the saturation regime. We argue that the power-law exponent of the latter regime, which measures how quickly the curve approaches the plateau, is directly related to control measures, in the sense that the less strict the control, the smaller the exponent and hence the slower the diseases progresses to its end. The power-law saturation uncovered here is an important result, because it signals to health authorities that it is important to keep control measures for as long as possible, so as to avoid a slow, power-law ending of the disease. The slower the approach to the plateau, the longer the virus lingers on in the population, and the greater not only the death toll but also the risk of resurgence.
has issue date	2020-07-14(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.12.20152140
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	da910d103be310598bd9f8ce09957fa1994361cc
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.12.20152140
resource representing a document's title	Complexity signatures in the COVID-19 epidemic: power law behaviour in the saturation regime of fatality curves
resource representing a document's body	covid:da910d103be310598bd9f8ce09957fa1994361cc#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'health authorities' named entity 'plateau' named entity 'virus' named entity 'measures' named entity 'plateau' named entity 'subexponential' named entity 'exponent' named entity 'fatality' named entity 'END' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'CURVE' named entity 'ASIA' named entity 'EXHIBIT' named entity 'DISEASE' covid:arg/da910d103be310598bd9f8ce09957fa1994361cc named entity 'signals' named entity 'risk' named entity 'argue' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'subexponential' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'complex' named entity 'model' named entity 'logistic model' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2 virus' named entity 'logistic model' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'virus' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'log scale' named entity 'confidence levels' named entity 'Netherlands' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'logistic model' named entity 'virus' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'compartmental models' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'power law' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity 'exponential function' named entity 'virus' named entity 'virus' named entity 'leading order' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'non-linear' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'exponential decay' named entity 'East Asia' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'growth phase' named entity 'evolution' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'United Kingdom' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'confidence levels' named entity 'mortality rates' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'power-law' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'inflection point' named entity 'growth phase' named entity 'Gauss hypergeometric function' named entity 'Japan' named entity 'Japan'

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