About: We apply a versatile growth model, whose rate of change is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and Asia. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may present a subexponential early growth but can also exhibit a similar subexponential (power-law) behaviour in the saturation regime. We argue that the power-law exponent of the latter regime, which measures how quickly the curve approaches the plateau, is directly related to control measures, in the sense that the less strict the control, the smaller the exponent and hence the slower the diseases progresses to its end. The power-law saturation uncovered here is an important result, because it signals to health authorities that it is important to keep control measures for as long as possible, so as to avoid a slow, power-law ending of the disease. The slower the approach to the plateau, the longer the virus lingers on in the population, and the greater not only the death toll but also the risk of resurgence.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • We apply a versatile growth model, whose rate of change is given by a generalised beta distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries in Europe and Asia. We show that the COVID-19 epidemic curves not only may present a subexponential early growth but can also exhibit a similar subexponential (power-law) behaviour in the saturation regime. We argue that the power-law exponent of the latter regime, which measures how quickly the curve approaches the plateau, is directly related to control measures, in the sense that the less strict the control, the smaller the exponent and hence the slower the diseases progresses to its end. The power-law saturation uncovered here is an important result, because it signals to health authorities that it is important to keep control measures for as long as possible, so as to avoid a slow, power-law ending of the disease. The slower the approach to the plateau, the longer the virus lingers on in the population, and the greater not only the death toll but also the risk of resurgence.
Subject
  • Virology
  • Continents
  • Exponentials
  • Power laws
  • Statistical laws
  • Theory of probability distributions
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