About: Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 control measures

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About: Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 control measures Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 control measures
Creator	Wang, Liangliang Colijn, Caroline Stockdale, Jessica Doig, Renny Elliott, Lloyd Min, Joosung Mulberry, Nicola
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Many countries have implemented population-wide interventions such as physical distancing measures, in efforts to control COVID-19. The extent and success of such measures has varied. Many jurisdictions with declines in reported COVID-19 cases are moving to relax measures, while others are continuing to intensify efforts to reduce transmission. Aim: We aim to determine the time frame between a change in COVID-19 measures at the population level and the observable impact of such a change on cases. Methods: We examine how long it takes for there to be a substantial difference between the cases that occur following a change in control measures and those that would have occurred at baseline. We then examine how long it takes to detect a difference, given delays and noise in reported cases. We use changes in population-level (e.g., distancing) control measures informed by data and estimates from British Columbia, Canada. Results: We find that the time frames are long: it takes three weeks or more before we might expect a substantial difference in cases given a change in population-level COVID-19 control, and it takes slightly longer to detect the impacts of the change. The time frames are shorter (11-15 days) for dramatic changes in control, and they are impacted by noise and delays in the testing and reporting process, with delays reaching up to 25-40 days. Conclusion: The time until a change in broad control measures has an observed impact is longer than is typically understood, and is longer than the mean incubation period (time between exposure than onset) and the often used 14 day time period. Policy makers and public health planners should consider this when assessing the impact of policy change, and efforts should be made to develop rapid, consistent real-time COVID-19 surveillance.
has issue date	2020-06-16(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.14.20131177
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	8fb24f1b94e8bff0fdbc612929d6152135bf242c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131177
resource representing a document's title	Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 control measures
resource representing a document's body	covid:8fb24f1b94e8bff0fdbc612929d6152135bf242c#body_text
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