About: Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic

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About: Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic
Creator	Aun, Yap Raja, Dhesi
topic	covid:18b0ab1cfd589ba8e30824359d7187168ec6209f#this
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	A stochastic Individual Contact Model (ICM) using SIR compartments allowing for time-variant parameters was used to simulate 100 non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies and exit trajectories for a hypothetical population, and to collect epidemiological and non-epidemiological outcomes to measure the performance of these strategies over the course of a period of intervention (up to six months) for a total duration of one-year to allow the full implications of the strategy and endgame to manifest. We find that variations in the time dimension and intensity of various strategies can have vastly different performance outcomes: (i) the timing of NPIs can 'shrink the area under the curve' (cumulative infections) not just 'flatten the curve'; (ii) prolonged lockdowns have diminishing margins of returns; (iii) smooth, submaximal lockdowns perform better than pulsatile lockdowns; and (iv) the efficiency of various strategies incorporating both epidemiological and non-epidemiological outcomes vary substantially. Most sobering, none of the simulated strategies allow for an 'acceptable' path to exit within six months due to very large gaps in health system capacity.
has issue date	2020-04-17(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.13.20063248
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	18b0ab1cfd589ba8e30824359d7187168ec6209f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063248
resource representing a document's title	Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic
resource representing a document's body	covid:18b0ab1cfd589ba8e30824359d7187168ec6209f#body_text
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