About: A stochastic Individual Contact Model (ICM) using SIR compartments allowing for time-variant parameters was used to simulate 100 non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies and exit trajectories for a hypothetical population, and to collect epidemiological and non-epidemiological outcomes to measure the performance of these strategies over the course of a period of intervention (up to six months) for a total duration of one-year to allow the full implications of the strategy and endgame to manifest. We find that variations in the time dimension and intensity of various strategies can have vastly different performance outcomes: (i) the timing of NPIs can 'shrink the area under the curve' (cumulative infections) not just 'flatten the curve'; (ii) prolonged lockdowns have diminishing margins of returns; (iii) smooth, submaximal lockdowns perform better than pulsatile lockdowns; and (iv) the efficiency of various strategies incorporating both epidemiological and non-epidemiological outcomes vary substantially. Most sobering, none of the simulated strategies allow for an 'acceptable' path to exit within six months due to very large gaps in health system capacity.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • A stochastic Individual Contact Model (ICM) using SIR compartments allowing for time-variant parameters was used to simulate 100 non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies and exit trajectories for a hypothetical population, and to collect epidemiological and non-epidemiological outcomes to measure the performance of these strategies over the course of a period of intervention (up to six months) for a total duration of one-year to allow the full implications of the strategy and endgame to manifest. We find that variations in the time dimension and intensity of various strategies can have vastly different performance outcomes: (i) the timing of NPIs can 'shrink the area under the curve' (cumulative infections) not just 'flatten the curve'; (ii) prolonged lockdowns have diminishing margins of returns; (iii) smooth, submaximal lockdowns perform better than pulsatile lockdowns; and (iv) the efficiency of various strategies incorporating both epidemiological and non-epidemiological outcomes vary substantially. Most sobering, none of the simulated strategies allow for an 'acceptable' path to exit within six months due to very large gaps in health system capacity.
Subject
  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental social science
  • Mathematical concepts
  • Properties of topological spaces
  • Integrals
  • International Congress of Mathematicians
  • Mathematics conferences
  • Recurring events established in 1897
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