About: A fractional-order compartmental model for predicting the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic

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About: A fractional-order compartmental model for predicting the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	A fractional-order compartmental model for predicting the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic
Creator	Biala, T Khaliq, A
source	ArXiv
abstract	We propose a time-fractional compartmental model (SEI$_A$I$_S$HRD) comprising of the susceptible, exposed, infected (asymptomatic and symptomatic), hospitalized, recovered and dead population for the Covid-19 pandemic. We study the properties and dynamics of the proposed model. The conditions under which the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are asymptotically stable are discussed. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of the parameters and use the data from Tennessee state (as a case study) to discuss identifiability of the parameters of the model. The non-negative parameters in the model are obtained by solving inverse problems with empirical data from California, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin. The basic reproduction number is seen to be slightly above the critical value of one suggesting that stricter measures such as the use of face-masks, social distancing, contact tracing, and even longer stay-at-home orders need to be enforced in order to mitigate the spread of the virus. As stay-at-home orders are rescinded in some of these states, we see that the number of cases began to increase almost immediately and may continue to rise until the end of the year 2020 unless stricter measures are taken.
has issue date	2020-07-08(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	fffc88be66eb39823fc9b50f0683e06a3038c9fe
resource representing a document's title	A fractional-order compartmental model for predicting the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic
resource representing a document's body	covid:fffc88be66eb39823fc9b50f0683e06a3038c9fe#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'non-negative' named entity 'The' named entity 'EXPOSED' named entity 'EMPIRICAL DATA' named entity 'BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER' »more»

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