About: Modelling of the second (and subsequent) waves of the coronavirus epidemic. Spain and Germany as case studies

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About: Modelling of the second (and subsequent) waves of the coronavirus epidemic. Spain and Germany as case studies Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Modelling of the second (and subsequent) waves of the coronavirus epidemic. Spain and Germany as case studies
Creator	De Castro, Francisco
source	MedRxiv
abstract	The first wave of the coronavirus pandemic is waning in many countries. Some of them are starting to lift the confinement measures adopted to control it, but there is considerable uncertainty about if it is too soon and it may cause a second wave of the epidemic. To explore this issue, I fitted a SEIR model with time-dependent transmission and mortality rates to data from Spain and Germany as contrasting case studies. The model reached an excellent fit to the data. I then simulated the post-confinement epidemic under several scenarios. The model shows that (in the absence of a vaccine) a second wave is likely inevitable and will arrive soon, and that a strategy of adaptive confinement may be effective to control it. The model also shows that just a few days delay in starting the confinement may have caused and excess of thousands of deaths in Spain.
has issue date	2020-06-14(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.06.12.20129429
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	fc8e76ad02e87bd7d66d5e952a23d1d15480e27c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.12.20129429
resource representing a document's title	Modelling of the second (and subsequent) waves of the coronavirus epidemic. Spain and Germany as case studies
resource representing a document's body	covid:fc8e76ad02e87bd7d66d5e952a23d1d15480e27c#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'delay' named entity 'contrasting' named entity 'control' named entity 'case studies' named entity 'Spain' »more»

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