About: Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty()

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty()
Creator	Ercolani, Valerio Natoli, Filippo
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	This letter highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that the two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up to 7 months ahead and becomes the second best predictor—after the yield curve slope—at longer horizons. Using data up to end-2018, out-of-sample forecasts show that uncertainty has significantly contributed to lower the probability of a recession in 2019, which indeed did not occur.
has issue date	2020-06-09(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109302
bibo:pmid	32546878
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	f9f649098ccbafbed5735fa8655e1faff6541d4f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109302
resource representing a document's title	Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty()
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7282785
has PubMed identifier	32546878
schema:publication	Econ Lett
resource representing a document's body	covid:f9f649098ccbafbed5735fa8655e1faff6541d4f#body_text
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