About: Monitoring health systems during and after natural disasters, epidemics, or outbreaks is critical for guiding policy decisions and interventions. In the case of natural disasters the effects on public health can be direct or indirect. Direct effects are defined as those resulting from the immediate destruction such as drowning and trauma from flying debris, while indirect effects are delayed, longer lasting, and, often harder to measure or detect. In the case of outbreaks and epidemics, lack of comprehensive testing or reporting can lead to challenges in measuring direct effects, while indirect effects can arise due to, for example, increased stress levels or reduced access to health services. When the effects are long lasting and difficult to detect in the short term, the accumulated effects can actually be devastating. Improved access to mortality data provides an opportunity to develop data-driven approaches that can help monitor health systems and quantify the effects of natural disasters, epidemics, or outbreaks. Here we describe a statistical methodology and software that facilitates data-driven approaches. Our work was motivated by events occurring in Puerto Rico after the passage of Hurricane Maria, but can be applied in other contexts such as estimating the effects of an epidemic in the presence of inaccurate reporting of cases. We demonstrate the utility of our tools by applying it to data related to six hurricanes and data related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also searched for other unusual events during the last 35 years in Puerto Rico. We demonstrate that the effects of hurricanes in Puerto Rico are substantially worse than in other states, that the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak resulted in an unusually high mortality rate in Puerto Rico, that in the United States the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic already exceeded 100,000 on May 9, 2020, and that the effects of this pandemic was worse for elderly black individuals compared to whites of the same age. We make our tools available through free and open source excessmort R package.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

An Entity of Type : fabio:Abstract, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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  • Monitoring health systems during and after natural disasters, epidemics, or outbreaks is critical for guiding policy decisions and interventions. In the case of natural disasters the effects on public health can be direct or indirect. Direct effects are defined as those resulting from the immediate destruction such as drowning and trauma from flying debris, while indirect effects are delayed, longer lasting, and, often harder to measure or detect. In the case of outbreaks and epidemics, lack of comprehensive testing or reporting can lead to challenges in measuring direct effects, while indirect effects can arise due to, for example, increased stress levels or reduced access to health services. When the effects are long lasting and difficult to detect in the short term, the accumulated effects can actually be devastating. Improved access to mortality data provides an opportunity to develop data-driven approaches that can help monitor health systems and quantify the effects of natural disasters, epidemics, or outbreaks. Here we describe a statistical methodology and software that facilitates data-driven approaches. Our work was motivated by events occurring in Puerto Rico after the passage of Hurricane Maria, but can be applied in other contexts such as estimating the effects of an epidemic in the presence of inaccurate reporting of cases. We demonstrate the utility of our tools by applying it to data related to six hurricanes and data related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also searched for other unusual events during the last 35 years in Puerto Rico. We demonstrate that the effects of hurricanes in Puerto Rico are substantially worse than in other states, that the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak resulted in an unusually high mortality rate in Puerto Rico, that in the United States the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic already exceeded 100,000 on May 9, 2020, and that the effects of this pandemic was worse for elderly black individuals compared to whites of the same age. We make our tools available through free and open source excessmort R package.
Subject
  • Primary care
  • 2017 in the Caribbean
  • Hurricanes in Martinique
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