About: Modelling the Economic Impacts of Epidemics in Developing Countries Under Alternative Intervention Strategies

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Modelling the Economic Impacts of Epidemics in Developing Countries Under Alternative Intervention Strategies
Creator	Geard, Nicholas Moss, Robert Madden, John Mcbryde, Emma Tran, Nhi Mcbryde, E Geard, N Giesecke, J Giesecke, James Madden, · Moss, R Tran, N
source	PMC
abstract	Modern levels of global travel have intensified the risk of new infectious diseases becoming pandemics. Particularly at risk are developing countries whose health systems may be less well equipped to detect quickly and respond effectively to the importation of new infectious diseases. This chapter examines what might have been the economic consequences if the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic had been imported to a small Asia-Pacific country. Hypothetical outbreaks in two countries were modelled. The post-importation estimations were carried out with two linked models: a stochastic disease transmission (SEIR) model and a quarterly version of the multi-country GTAP model, GTAP-Q. The SEIR model provided daily estimates of the number of persons in various disease states. For each intervention strategy the stochastic disease model was run 500 times to obtain the probability distribution of disease outcomes. Typical daily country outcomes for both controlled and uncontrolled outbreaks under five alternative intervention strategies were converted to quarterly disease-state results, which in turn were used in the estimation of GTAP-Q shocks to country-specific health costs and labour productivity during the outbreak, and permanent reductions in each country’s population and labour force due to mortality. Estimated behavioural consequences (severe reductions in international tourism and crowd avoidance) formed further shocks. The GTAP-Q simulations revealed very large economic costs for each country if they experienced an uncontrolled Ebola outbreak, and considerable economic costs for controlled outbreaks in Fiji due to the importance of the tourism sector to its economy. A major finding was that purely reactive strategies had virtually no effect on preventing uncontrolled outbreaks, but pre-emptive strategies substantially reduced the proportion of uncontrolled outbreaks, and in turn the economic and social costs.
has issue date	2020-03-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1007/978-981-15-3970-1_9
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	eea938a326b65fb123842d50c944adaf32119bcd
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3970-1_9
resource representing a document's title	Modelling the Economic Impacts of Epidemics in Developing Countries Under Alternative Intervention Strategies
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7352117
schema:publication	Environmental Economics and Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
resource representing a document's body	covid:eea938a326b65fb123842d50c944adaf32119bcd#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'social costs' named entity 'uncontrolled' named entity 'levels' named entity 'estimation' named entity 'outbreaks' named entity 'disease' named entity 'Developing Countries' named entity 'STATES' named entity 'RESPOND' named entity 'CARRIED' named entity 'STRATEGY' named entity 'MAY BE' named entity 'HYPOTHETICAL' named entity 'PROPORTION' named entity 'TIMES' named entity 'GTAP' named entity 'SIMULATIONS' named entity 'DISEASE TRANSMISSION' named entity 'ECONOMIC' named entity 'uncontrolled' named entity 'labour force' named entity 'importation' named entity 'consequences' named entity 'behavioural' named entity 'travel' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'tourism' named entity 'detect' named entity 'health' named entity 'intensified' named entity 'Hypothetical' named entity 'version' named entity 'experienced' named entity 'risk' named entity 'Alternative' named entity 'infectious diseases' named entity 'GTAP' named entity 'substantially reduced' named entity 'developing countries' named entity 'global travel' named entity 'social costs' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'Fiji' named entity 'stochastic' named entity 'pandemics' named entity 'stochastic' named entity 'health systems' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'GDP' named entity 'infection' named entity 'developing countries' named entity 'cultural events' named entity 'probability' named entity 'CGE' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'Timor-Leste' named entity 'CGE' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'H1N1 outbreak' named entity 'CGE' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'Timor-Leste' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'GTAP' named entity 'GTAP' named entity 'Fiji' named entity 'sick day' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'Ebola' named entity 'Fiji' named entity 'Dili' named entity 'employment rates'

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