About: Decisions to adhere to health-protective behaviors (e.g. mask-wearing, social distancing, etc.) that impact the spread of COVID-19 are not made in isolation by each individual. They are instead the result of the social construction of perceived risks and resulting community norms. In populations in which disease is unlikely to spread throughout all communities simultaneously, community-driven perception of risk can drastically alter collective outcomes. A community could respond to a few infections by becoming fearful and adopting anticipatory behaviors that protect them from disease spread. Similarly, there could be false reassurance, in which low disease incidence over time leads to community consensus that protective actions are unnecessary (even if they are the reason cases remains rare). We therefore model COVID-19 spread with three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioral choices: (1) Social construction of concern, (2) Awareness of disease incidence, and (3) Reassurance by lack of disease. We use a multiplex network approach that captures social communication and epidemiological spread. We find that effective protective policies enacted too early may backfire by allowing a community to become reassured and therefore unwilling to adopt or maintain further protective behaviors. Based on these insights, we propose that public health policies for which success relies on collective action should be designed to exploit the behaviourally receptive phase; the period between the generation of sufficient concern as to foster adoption of novel protective behaviors and the relaxation of adherence driven by reassurance fostered by avoidance of negative outcomes over time.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • Decisions to adhere to health-protective behaviors (e.g. mask-wearing, social distancing, etc.) that impact the spread of COVID-19 are not made in isolation by each individual. They are instead the result of the social construction of perceived risks and resulting community norms. In populations in which disease is unlikely to spread throughout all communities simultaneously, community-driven perception of risk can drastically alter collective outcomes. A community could respond to a few infections by becoming fearful and adopting anticipatory behaviors that protect them from disease spread. Similarly, there could be false reassurance, in which low disease incidence over time leads to community consensus that protective actions are unnecessary (even if they are the reason cases remains rare). We therefore model COVID-19 spread with three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioral choices: (1) Social construction of concern, (2) Awareness of disease incidence, and (3) Reassurance by lack of disease. We use a multiplex network approach that captures social communication and epidemiological spread. We find that effective protective policies enacted too early may backfire by allowing a community to become reassured and therefore unwilling to adopt or maintain further protective behaviors. Based on these insights, we propose that public health policies for which success relies on collective action should be designed to exploit the behaviourally receptive phase; the period between the generation of sufficient concern as to foster adoption of novel protective behaviors and the relaxation of adherence driven by reassurance fostered by avoidance of negative outcomes over time.
Subject
  • Hygiene
  • Epidemiology
  • Doomsday scenarios
  • Holism
  • Medical statistics
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