About: Lessons from the Mainland of China’s Epidemic Experience in the First Phase about the Growth Rules of Infected and Recovered Cases of COVID-19 Worldwide

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About: Lessons from the Mainland of China’s Epidemic Experience in the First Phase about the Growth Rules of Infected and Recovered Cases of COVID-19 Worldwide Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Lessons from the Mainland of China’s Epidemic Experience in the First Phase about the Growth Rules of Infected and Recovered Cases of COVID-19 Worldwide
Creator	Liu, Yimeng Han, Chuanliang Yang, Saini Jaeger, Carlo Tang, Jiting Zhu, Yuyao
Source	PMC
abstract	The first phase of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that emerged at the end of 2019 has been brought under control in the mainland of China in March, while it is still spreading globally. When the pandemic will end is a question of great concern. A logistic model that depicts the growth rules of infected and recovered cases in China’s mainland may shed some light on this question. This model well explained the data by 13 April from 31 countries that have been experiencing serious COVID-2019 outbreaks (R(2) ≥ 0.95). Based on this model, the semi-saturation period (SSP) of infected cases in those countries ranges from 3 March to 18 June. According to the linear relationship between the growth rules for infected and for recovered cases identified from the Chinese data, we predicted that the SSP of the recovered cases outside China ranges from 22 March to 8 July. More importantly, we found a strong positive correlation between the SSP of infected cases and the timing of a government’s response. Finally, this model was also applied to four regions that went through other coronavirus or Ebola virus epidemics (R(2) ≥ 0.95). There is a negative correlation between the death rate and the logistic growth rate. These findings provide strong evidence for the effectiveness of rapid epidemic control measures in various countries.
has issue date	2020-08-18(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1007/s13753-020-00294-7
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	ce57e542e075b381e5c78a820514330da1c04de2
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00294-7
resource representing a document's title	Lessons from the Mainland of China’s Epidemic Experience in the First Phase about the Growth Rules of Infected and Recovered Cases of COVID-19 Worldwide
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7433281
schema:publication	Int J Disaster Risk Sci
resource representing a document's body	covid:ce57e542e075b381e5c78a820514330da1c04de2#body_text
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