About: Predicted effects of summer holidays and seasonality on the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic in France

Facets (new session)
Description
Metadata
Settings
- owl:sameAs
- Inference Rule:

About: Predicted effects of summer holidays and seasonality on the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic in France Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Predicted effects of summer holidays and seasonality on the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic in France
Creator	Boussau, Bastien Duchemin, Louis Paris, Mathilde Veber, Philippe
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France has had a large death toll. It has not affected all regions similarly, since the death rate can vary several folds between regions where the epidemic has remained at a low level and regions where it got an early burst. The epidemic has been slowed down by a lockdown that lasted for almost eight weeks, and individuals can now move between metropolitan French regions without restriction. In this report we investigate the effect on the epidemic of summer holidays, during which millions of individuals will move between French regions. Additionally, we evaluate the effect of strong or weak seasonality and of several values for the reproduction number on the epidemic, in particular on the timing, the height and the spread of a second wave. To do so, we extend a SEIR model to simulate the effect of summer migrations between regions on the number and distribution of new infections. We find that the model predicts little effect of summer migrations on the epidemic. However, all the reproduction numbers above 1.0 and the seasonality parameters we tried result in a second epidemic wave, with a peak date that can vary between October 2020 and April 2021. If the sanitary measures currently in place manage to keep the reproduction number below 1.0, the second wave will be avoided. If they keep the reproduction number at a low value, for instance at 1.1 as in one of our simulations, the second wave is flattened and could be similar to the first wave.
has issue date	2020-07-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.06.20147660
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	ce1ba9ea2a7a453f5e8432e336d6ed4396bc8cda
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.06.20147660
resource representing a document's title	Predicted effects of summer holidays and seasonality on the SARS-Cov-2 epidemic in France
resource representing a document's body	covid:ce1ba9ea2a7a453f5e8432e336d6ed4396bc8cda#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'regions' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'level' named entity 'early' named entity 'France' named entity 'migrations' named entity 'migrations' named entity 'avoided' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'number' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'vary' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'epidemic' named entity '1.1' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'SARS-Cov-2' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'France' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'worldwide epidemic' named entity 'data analysis' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'lockdown' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'simulation' named entity 'simulation' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'March 1' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'France' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'infection' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'lockdown' named entity 'control the size' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'France' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'France' named entity 'SEIR' named entity '10 million' named entity 'hand washing' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'March 29' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'temperate countries' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'SEIR' named entity '2.0' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'infection' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'France' named entity 'June 29' named entity 'France' named entity 'differential equations' named entity 'seasonality' named entity 'Python' named entity 'SEIR' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'lockdown'

Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020

Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE Content Formats:

RDF

ODATA

Microdata

About

OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2025 OpenLink Software