About: Is Nigeria really on top of COVID-19? Message from effective reproduction number

Facets (new session)
Description
Metadata
Settings
- owl:sameAs
- Inference Rule:

About: Is Nigeria really on top of COVID-19? Message from effective reproduction number Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Is Nigeria really on top of COVID-19? Message from effective reproduction number
Creator	Mcbryde, E Adegboye, O Adekunle, A Gayawan, E
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Following the importation of Covid-19 into Nigeria on the 27 February 2020 and then the outbreak, the question is: how do we anticipate the progression of the ongoing epidemics following all the intervention measures put in place? This kind of question is appropriate for public health responses and it will depend on the early estimates of the key epidemiological parameters of the virus in a defined population. In this study, we combined a likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework and compartmental model of the epidemic of Covid-19 in Nigeria to estimate the effective reproduction number (R(t)) and basic reproduction number (R_0). This also enables us to estimate the daily transmission rate ({beta}) that determines the effect of social distancing. We further estimate the reported fraction of symptomatic cases. The models are applied to the NCDC data on Covid-19 symptomatic and death cases from 27 February 2020 and 7 May 2020. In this period, the effective reproduction number is estimated with a minimum value of 0.18 and a maximum value of 1.78. Most importantly, the R(t) is strictly greater than one from April 13 till 7 May 2020. The R_0 is estimated to be 2.42 with credible interval: (2.37, 2.47). Comparing this with the R(t) shows that control measures are working but not effective enough to keep R(t) below one. Also, the estimated fractional reported symptomatic cases are between 10 to 50%. Our analysis has shown evidence that the existing control measures are not enough to end the epidemic and more stringent measures are needed.
has issue date	2020-05-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.16.20104471
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	cd3eb594b5a3d541d1c73489f4eb05f3e35a5dc7
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104471
resource representing a document's title	Is Nigeria really on top of COVID-19? Message from effective reproduction number
resource representing a document's body	covid:cd3eb594b5a3d541d1c73489f4eb05f3e35a5dc7#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'population' named entity 'number' named entity 'FEBRUARY' named entity 'HOW' named entity 'DEFINED' named entity 'INTERVENTION' named entity 'VIRUS' named entity 'outbreak' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'virus' named entity 'probability' named entity 'Nigeria' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'disease surveillance' named entity 'World Health Organisation' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'Covid-19' named entity 'lognormal' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'asymptomatic patients' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'flatten the curve' named entity 'CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'credible interval' named entity 'copyright holder' named entity 'prior distribution' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'asymptomatic patients' named entity 'copyright holder' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'basic reproduction number' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'Nigerian' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'May 20' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'compartmental model' named entity 'copyright holder' named entity 'Covid-19 in Nigeria' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'infectious disease' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'lockdown' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'copyright holder' named entity 'Covid' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'Nigeria' named entity 'March 20' named entity 'index case' named entity 'Covid-19 in Nigeria' named entity 'Nigeria' named entity '4.7' named entity 'Nigeria Centre for Disease Control' named entity 'May 20' named entity 'force of infection' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'infectious diseases' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Covid' named entity '1,000,000' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'Nigerian' named entity 'compartmental model' named entity 'social distancing'

Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020

Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE Content Formats:

RDF

ODATA

Microdata

About

OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software