About: Dynamics of COVID‐19 epidemics: SEIR models underestimate peak infection rates and overestimate epidemic duration

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Dynamics of COVID‐19 epidemics: SEIR models underestimate peak infection rates and overestimate epidemic duration
Creator	Grant, Alastair
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Compartment models of infectious diseases, such as SEIR, are being used extensively to model the COVID-19 epidemic. Transitions between compartments are modelled either as instantaneous rates in differential equations, or as transition probabilities in discrete time difference or matrix equations. These models give accurate estimates of the position of equilibrium points, when the rate at which individuals enter each stage is equal to the rate at which they exit from it. However, they do not accurately capture the distribution of times that an individual spends in each compartment, so do not accurately capture the transient dynamics of epidemics. Here we show how matrix models can provide a straightforward route to accurately model stage durations, and thus correctly reproduce epidemic dynamics. We apply this approach to modelling the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic. We show that a SEIR model underestimates peak infection rates (by a factor of three using published parameter estimates based on the progress of the epidemic in Wuhan) and substantially overestimates epidemic persistence after the peak has passed.
has issue date	2020-04-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.02.20050674
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	c90c1447ea65aeb66f76b0c6261d43bc1864c9a0
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20050674
resource representing a document's title	Dynamics of COVID‐19 epidemics: SEIR models underestimate peak infection rates and overestimate epidemic duration
resource representing a document's body	covid:c90c1447ea65aeb66f76b0c6261d43bc1864c9a0#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'MODELS' named entity 'Compartment' named entity 'models' named entity 'extensively' named entity 'SEIR' »more»

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