About: Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
Creator	Liu, Yang Edmunds, John Klepac, Petra Kucharski, Adam Davies, Nicholas Diamond, Charlie Gibbs, Hamish Gimma, Amy Jit, Mark Prem, Kiesha Clifford, Samuel Abbott, Sebastian Bosse, Fiona Flasche, Alicia Funk, Nikos Hellewell, Timothy Houben, Joel Munday, James Pearson, Carl Quilty, Billy Russell, Sam Sun, Stefan Van Zandvoort, Kevin
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms, or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from six countries. We estimate that clinical symptoms occur in 25% (95% CrI: 19-32%) of infections in 10-19-year-olds, rising to 76% (68-82%) in over-70s, and that susceptibility to infection in under-20s is approximately half that of older adults. Accordingly, we find that interventions aimed at children may have a relatively small impact on total cases, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low. The age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility we have estimated has implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19 because of demographic differences across settings: in younger populations, the expected clinical attack rate would be lower, although it is likely that comorbidities in low-income countries will affect disease severity. Without effective control measures, regions with older populations may see disproportionally more clinical cases, particularly in the later stages of the pandemic.
has issue date	2020-03-27(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.24.20043018
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	be06a4f1d96c62391496a8f06a3d00cdf0ae0f9c
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043018
resource representing a document's title	Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
resource representing a document's body	covid:be06a4f1d96c62391496a8f06a3d00cdf0ae0f9c#body_text
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