About: Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters.

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About: Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters. Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

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type	abstract
value	Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters.
subject	Senescence Evolutionary biology 2019 disasters in China 2019 health disasters
part of	Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models
is abstract of	Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models
is hasSource of	covid:ann/target/4eb113311e570ca9b12bea9b20fe4a6efa698ebd covid:ann/target/e0257a988c78a4bff1cf9e99f8e36d5530c248d7 covid:ann/target/72a2168e82f127a75f568f4ab8c878b13e5c6195 covid:ann/target/ffb9a0b94b68e989d9067c900626d26c14659618 covid:ann/target/2d42200d3aeea19a7f103db2129a23882188a830 »more»

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