About: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21(st) century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most significant global health crisis of the 21(st) century. The aim of this study was to develop a model to estimate the effect of undocumented infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, on the transmission, morbidity, and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State (NYS). Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by undocumented infections, and a peak basic reproductive number in NYS of 5.7. NPIs have been effective, and relaxation >50% will result in tens-of-thousands more deaths. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity. As a result, until an effective vaccine or other effective pharmaceutical intervention is developed, it will be critical to not reduce NPIs >50% below current levels. This study establishes fundamental characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which can help policymakers navigate combating this virus in the coming years.
Subject
  • Virology
  • Zoonoses
  • Epidemiology
  • COVID-19
  • New York (state)
  • Bat virome
  • Sarbecovirus
  • Chiroptera-borne diseases
  • Infraspecific virus taxa
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