About: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment

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About: Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
Creator	Riley, Steven Dorigatti, Ilaria Ferguson, Neil Fitzjohn, Rich Donnelly, Christl Baguelin, Marc Bhatt, Samir Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma Hinsley, Wes Bhatia, Sangeeta Dighe, Amy Ghani, Azra Imai, Natsuko Watson, Oliver Fu, Han Wang, Haowei Xi, Xiaoyue Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina Gaythorpe, Katy Green, Will Hamlet, Arran Laydon, Daniel Okell, Lucy Thompson, Hayley Van Elsland, Sabine Verity, Robert Walker, Patrick Walters, Caroline Wang, Yuanrong Whittaker, Charles Winskill, Peter Ainslie, Kylie Boyd, Olivia Cattarino, Lorenzo Ciavarella, Constanze Cucunuba, Zulma Jorgensen, David Knock, Edward Siveroni, Igor Unwin, Juliette Vollmer, Michaela
Source	Medline; PMC; WHO
abstract	Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.
has issue date	2020-04-28(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15843.1
bibo:pmid	32500100
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	a858d800585d002c62a4766dec37406527afe37f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15843.1
resource representing a document's title	Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7236587
has PubMed identifier	32500100
schema:publication	Wellcome Open Res
resource representing a document's body	covid:a858d800585d002c62a4766dec37406527afe37f#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'provinces' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'strict' named entity 'CHINA' named entity 'REPORTED' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'impacted' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'March' named entity 'ability' named entity 'initial' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity '11 March 2020' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Open Peer Review' named entity 'Europe' named entity 'Hong Kong SAR' named entity 'exit strategies' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'mainland China' named entity 'local transmission' named entity 'outbreak in China' named entity 'China' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'PCR tests' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'infection' named entity 'Macau SAR' named entity 'mainland China' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'China' named entity 'Hong Kong SAR' named entity 'Chinese economy' named entity 'GPS tracking' named entity 'Beijing' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity '12 March'

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