About: The effect of border controls on the risk of COVID-19 reincursion from international arrivals

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About: The effect of border controls on the risk of COVID-19 reincursion from international arrivals Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The effect of border controls on the risk of COVID-19 reincursion from international arrivals
Creator	Hendy, Shaun James, Alex Plank, Michael Steyn, Nicholas Binny, Rachelle Lustig, Audrey
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	In an attempt to maintain elimination of COVID-19, the New Zealand government has closed the border to everyone except citizens and residents. All arrivals are required to spend 14 days in government-managed isolation/quarantine and to be tested for COVID-19 on day 3 and on day 12 of their stay. We model the testing, isolation and potential transmission of COVID-19 within managed isolation facilities to estimate the risk of undetected cases and the risk of infectious cases being released into the community. We use a stochastic individual-based that includes a time-dependent probability of a false negative test result, complete isolation of confirmed and probable cases, and secondary transmission of COVID-19 between close contacts. We show that the combination of 14-day quarantine with day 3 and day 12 testing reduces risk of releasing an infectious case to around 0.1% per infected arrival. Shorter quarantine periods, or reliance on testing only with no quarantine, substantially increase this risk. It is important to avoid contacts between individuals staying in quarantine to minimise the risk of secondary transmission. We calculate the ratio of cases detected on day 3 to cases detected on day 12 in the model and show that this may be a useful indicator of the likelihood of secondary transmission occurring within quarantine. We do not explicitly model transmission of COVID-19 from individuals in quarantine to staff, but this is likely to present a significant risk. This needs to be minimised by strict infection control, use of personal protective equipment by staff at all times, and avoiding close contact between staff and hotel guests.
has issue date	2020-07-22(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.07.15.20154955
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	a692cc3170e766782d344c59a0f07c56eb25dde5
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154955
resource representing a document's title	The effect of border controls on the risk of COVID-19 reincursion from international arrivals
resource representing a document's body	covid:a692cc3170e766782d344c59a0f07c56eb25dde5#body_text
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