About: A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy

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About: A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy
Creator	Riley, Steven Ratmann, Oliver Dorigatti, Ilaria Ferguson, Neil Donnelly, Christl Baguelin, Marc Nouvellet, Pierre Bhatt, Samir Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma Bhatia, Sangeeta Dighe, Amy Ghani, Azra Imai, Natsuko Watson, Oliver Whittaker, Charlie Parag, Kris Wang, Haowei Xi, Xiaoyue Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina Djaafara, Bimandra Gaythorpe, Katy Green, Will Laydon, Daniel Okell, Lucy Thompson, Hayley Van Elsland, Sabine Verity, Robert Walker, Patrick Wang, Yuanrong Ainslie, Kylie Brazeau, Nicholas Cattarino, Lorenzo Cilloni, Lucia Cooper, Laura Coupland, Helen Cucunuba, Zulma Eaton, Jeff Fraser, Keith Fitzjohn, Richard Hayes, Sarah Knock, Edward Lees, John Mangal, Tara Mellan, Thomas Mishra, Swapnil Unwin, Juliette Vollmer, Michaela Whittles, Lilith Flaxman, Seth Gandy, Axel Pickles, Michael Bradley, Valerie Charles, Giovanni Ciavarella, Constance Hawryluk, Iwona Hutchinson, Michael Jeffrey, Ben Latif, Abdul Monod, Melodie Mousa, Andria Olivera, Daniela Walters, Car-Oline Zhu, Harrison
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Italy was the first European country to experience sustained local transmission of COVID-19. As of 1st May 2020, the Italian health authorities reported 28,238 deaths nationally. To control the epidemic, the Italian government implemented a suite of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school and university closures, social distancing and full lockdown involving banning of public gatherings and non essential movement. In this report, we model the effect of NPIs on transmission using data on average mobility. We estimate that the average reproduction number (a measure of transmission intensity) is currently below one for all Italian regions, and significantly so for the majority of the regions. Despite the large number of deaths, the proportion of population that has been infected by SARS-CoV-2 (the attack rate) is far from the herd immunity threshold in all Italian regions, with the highest attack rate observed in Lombardy (13.18% [10.66%-16.70%]). Italy is set to relax the currently implemented NPIs from 4th May 2020. Given the control achieved by NPIs, we consider three scenarios for the next 8 weeks: a scenario in which mobility remains the same as during the lockdown, a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 20%, and a scenario in which mobility returns to pre-lockdown levels by 40%. The scenarios explored assume that mobility is scaled evenly across all dimensions, that behaviour stays the same as before NPIs were implemented, that no pharmaceutical interventions are introduced, and it does not include transmission reduction from contact tracing, testing and the isolation of confirmed or suspected cases. New interventions, such as enhanced testing and contact tracing are going to be introduced and will likely contribute to reductions in transmission; therefore our estimates should be viewed as pessimistic projections. We find that, in the absence of additional interventions, even a 20% return to pre-lockdown mobility could lead to a resurgence in the number of deaths far greater than experienced in the current wave in several regions. Future increases in the number of deaths will lag behind the increase in transmission intensity and so a second wave will not be immediately apparent from just monitoring of the daily number of deaths. Our results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 transmission as well as mobility should be closely monitored in the next weeks and months. To compensate for the increase in mobility that will occur due to the relaxation of the currently implemented NPIs, adherence to the recommended social distancing measures alongside enhanced community surveillance including swab testing, contact tracing and the early isolation of infections are of paramount importance to reduce the risk of resurgence in transmission.
has issue date	2020-05-09(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.05.20089359
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	9a1814a7a5232980ff0e7d60d844f19dd485427d
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.05.20089359
resource representing a document's title	A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy
resource representing a document's body	covid:9a1814a7a5232980ff0e7d60d844f19dd485427d#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'Analytics' named entity 'experience' named entity 'Infectious Disease' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'logit' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'self-isolation' named entity 'Italian' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'social interaction' named entity 'covariate' named entity 'Social distancing' named entity 'Social distancing' named entity 'Sicily' named entity '20%' named entity 'preprint' named entity 'medRxiv' named entity '40%' named entity 'Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team' named entity 'COVID-19'

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