About: Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities

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About: Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities
Creator	Al Abdallat, Yousef Al-Shihabi, Sameh Arabeyyat, Omar Barghash, Mahmoud Saidan, Hakam Saidan, Motasem Shbool, Mohammad
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	Abstract Background The reproduction number (R0) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number infected people and trace the close contacts. The R0 values varies depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection transmissibility, in addition to its pathophysiology dependence. Objectives In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 at clusters mathematically using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases, as a function of time. Methods We proposed mathematical model to estimate the R0 of COVID-19 in the outbreak occurring in both of local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between February and April 2020. Results The highest R0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). This in return, shall enable us to assess the trend coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns.. Conclusions This study provides a predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different clusters types based on different R0 values. This model offers the decision makers in the contact-tracing task the predicted number of cases, which would help them in epidemiology investigations by knowing when to stop.
has issue date	2020-07-04(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.105
bibo:pmid	32634588
has license	els-covid
sha1sum (hex)	9475ed9a2189d8990a0fed998079f6d1acd7af4f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.105
resource representing a document's title	Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7334968
has PubMed identifier	32634588
schema:publication	Int J Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:9475ed9a2189d8990a0fed998079f6d1acd7af4f#body_text
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