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About:
Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet: Democratizing the access to first-hand accurate predictions of epidemic outbreaks
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Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title
Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet: Democratizing the access to first-hand accurate predictions of epidemic outbreaks
Creator
González-González, Everardo
Moisés Alvarez, Mario
Trujillo-De Santiago, Grissel
source
MedRxiv
abstract
COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15 years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions (i.e., Italy, Spain, and New York City (NYC)). We also show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting two parameters related to (a) population density and (b) aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. Moreover, we show that this simple epidemiological simulator can be used to assess the efficacy of the response of a government/society to an outbreak.
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2020-03-27
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bibo:doi
10.1101/2020.03.23.20041590
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medrxiv
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87591fa3e8ee53f63d931a69f0e936b7ee15e5c2
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https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20041590
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Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet: Democratizing the access to first-hand accurate predictions of epidemic outbreaks
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covid:87591fa3e8ee53f63d931a69f0e936b7ee15e5c2#body_text
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named entity 'response'
named entity 'Italy'
named entity 'data'
named entity 'Excel spreadsheet'
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