About: In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque Health managers and the Basque Government during the COVID-19 responses. BMTF is a modeling team, working on different approaches, including statistical methods and artificial intelligence. In this paper we describe and present the results obtained by one of the modeling approaches developed within the BMTF, a stochastic SHARUCD-type models able to describe the disease incidence data, provided by the Basque Health Service, with a single parameter set. Data inspection has shown that the partial lockdown measures were effective to slowdown disease transmission in the Basque Country. Short and longer-term predictions are tested with good results adjusted to the current epidemiological data. The growth rate {lambda} is calculated from the model and from the data and the implications for the reproduction ratio r are shown. At the moment, the reproduction ratio r is estimated to be below the threshold behavior of r = 1, but still close to 1, meaning that although the number of new cases are decelerating, a careful monitoring of the development of the outbreak is required. Besides projections on the national health system needs during the increased population demand on hospital admissions, models were able to describe COVID-19 epidemic in the Basque Country, from introduction to control measure response and are now being used to monitor disease transmission when the country lockdown is gradually lifted. These are the first made public available modeling results for the Basque Country and the efforts will be continued taking into consideration the updated data and new information that are generated over time.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque Health managers and the Basque Government during the COVID-19 responses. BMTF is a modeling team, working on different approaches, including statistical methods and artificial intelligence. In this paper we describe and present the results obtained by one of the modeling approaches developed within the BMTF, a stochastic SHARUCD-type models able to describe the disease incidence data, provided by the Basque Health Service, with a single parameter set. Data inspection has shown that the partial lockdown measures were effective to slowdown disease transmission in the Basque Country. Short and longer-term predictions are tested with good results adjusted to the current epidemiological data. The growth rate {lambda} is calculated from the model and from the data and the implications for the reproduction ratio r are shown. At the moment, the reproduction ratio r is estimated to be below the threshold behavior of r = 1, but still close to 1, meaning that although the number of new cases are decelerating, a careful monitoring of the development of the outbreak is required. Besides projections on the national health system needs during the increased population demand on hospital admissions, models were able to describe COVID-19 epidemic in the Basque Country, from introduction to control measure response and are now being used to monitor disease transmission when the country lockdown is gradually lifted. These are the first made public available modeling results for the Basque Country and the efforts will be continued taking into consideration the updated data and new information that are generated over time.
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  • Hygiene
  • Criminology
  • Autonomous communities of Spain
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