About: A goal of many epidemic models is to compute the outcome of the epidemics from the observed infected early dynamics. However, often, the total number of infected individuals at the end of the epidemics is much lower than predicted from the early dynamics. This discrepancy is argued to result from human intervention or nonlinear dynamics not incorporated in standard models. We show that when variability in infection rates is included in standard susciptible-infected-susceptible ([Formula: see text]) and susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text]) models the total number of infected individuals in the late dynamics can be orders lower than predicted from the early dynamics. This discrepancy holds for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] models, where the assumption that all individuals have the same sensitivity is eliminated. In contrast with network models, fixed partnerships are not assumed. We derive a moment closure scheme capturing the distribution of sensitivities. We find that the shape of the sensitivity distribution does not affect [Formula: see text] or the number of infected individuals in the early phases of the epidemics. However, a wide distribution of sensitivities reduces the total number of removed individuals in the [Formula: see text] model and the steady-state infected fraction in the [Formula: see text] model. The difference between the early and late dynamics implies that in order to extrapolate the expected effect of the epidemics from the initial phase of the epidemics, the rate of change in the average infectivity should be computed. These results are supported by a comparison of the theoretical model to the Ebola epidemics and by numerical simulation.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

An Entity of Type : fabio:Abstract, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

AttributesValues
type
value
  • A goal of many epidemic models is to compute the outcome of the epidemics from the observed infected early dynamics. However, often, the total number of infected individuals at the end of the epidemics is much lower than predicted from the early dynamics. This discrepancy is argued to result from human intervention or nonlinear dynamics not incorporated in standard models. We show that when variability in infection rates is included in standard susciptible-infected-susceptible ([Formula: see text]) and susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text]) models the total number of infected individuals in the late dynamics can be orders lower than predicted from the early dynamics. This discrepancy holds for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] models, where the assumption that all individuals have the same sensitivity is eliminated. In contrast with network models, fixed partnerships are not assumed. We derive a moment closure scheme capturing the distribution of sensitivities. We find that the shape of the sensitivity distribution does not affect [Formula: see text] or the number of infected individuals in the early phases of the epidemics. However, a wide distribution of sensitivities reduces the total number of removed individuals in the [Formula: see text] model and the steady-state infected fraction in the [Formula: see text] model. The difference between the early and late dynamics implies that in order to extrapolate the expected effect of the epidemics from the initial phase of the epidemics, the rate of change in the average infectivity should be computed. These results are supported by a comparison of the theoretical model to the Ebola epidemics and by numerical simulation.
Subject
  • Epidemiology
  • Network theory
  • Arthropod-borne viral fevers and viral haemorrhagic fevers
  • Concepts in the philosophy of mind
part of
is abstract of
is hasSource of
Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020


Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE     Content Formats:       RDF       ODATA       Microdata      About   
This material is Open Knowledge   W3C Semantic Web Technology [RDF Data]
OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software