About: We consider a deterministic epidemiological compartmental model that includes age and social contact structure for the COVID-19 crisis and explore the consequences of different strategies for easing current lockdown measures that are in place in many countries. We apply the model to the specific circumstances in the state of New Jersey, in the United States of America. As expected, only a rigorous program of testing, tracing and isolation of cases will allow the state to ease its lockdown with a reduced number of deaths. We also find that a slightly earlier date of lockdown, while reducing the number of deaths in the short term, will only reduce the total number of deaths in the long run if the ensuing strategies in easing the lockdown are carried out with the aforementioned test, trace and isolation program. Otherwise, a slightly earlier lockdown will result in increased deaths as the expected second wave of infection sweeps through the state in the coming months.   Goto Sponge  NotDistinct  Permalink

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  • We consider a deterministic epidemiological compartmental model that includes age and social contact structure for the COVID-19 crisis and explore the consequences of different strategies for easing current lockdown measures that are in place in many countries. We apply the model to the specific circumstances in the state of New Jersey, in the United States of America. As expected, only a rigorous program of testing, tracing and isolation of cases will allow the state to ease its lockdown with a reduced number of deaths. We also find that a slightly earlier date of lockdown, while reducing the number of deaths in the short term, will only reduce the total number of deaths in the long run if the ensuing strategies in easing the lockdown are carried out with the aforementioned test, trace and isolation program. Otherwise, a slightly earlier lockdown will result in increased deaths as the expected second wave of infection sweeps through the state in the coming months.
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  • United States
  • Mathematical modeling
  • G7 nations
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