About: Untangling factors associated with country-specific COVID-19 incidence, mortality and case fatality rates during the first quarter of 2020

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About: Untangling factors associated with country-specific COVID-19 incidence, mortality and case fatality rates during the first quarter of 2020 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Untangling factors associated with country-specific COVID-19 incidence, mortality and case fatality rates during the first quarter of 2020
Creator	Shagam, Lev
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	At early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic which we are experiencing, the publicly reported incidence, mortality and case fatality rates (CFR) vary significantly between countries. Here we aim to untangle factors that are associated with the differences during the first quarter of the year 2020. Number of performed COVID-19 tests has a strong correlation with country-specific incidence (p <2×10-16) and mortality rate (p = 5.1×10-8). Using multivariate linear regression we show that incidence and mortality rates correlate significantly with GDP per capita (p = 2.6×10-15 and 7.0×10-4, respectively), country-specific duration of the outbreak (2.6×10-4 and 0.0019), fraction of citizens over 65 years old (p = 0.0049 and 3.8×10-4) and level of press freedom (p = 0.021 and 0.019) which cumulatively explain 80% of variability of incidence and more than 60% of variability of mortality of the disease during the period analyzed. Country hemisphere demonstrated significant correlation only with mortality (p = 0.17 and 0.036) whereas population density (p = 0.94 and p = 0.75) and latitude (p = 0.61 and 0.059) did not reach significance in our model. Case fatality rate is shown to rise as the outbreak progresses (p = 0.028). We rank countries by COVID-19 mortality corrected for incidence and the factors that were shown to affect it, and by CFR corrected for outbreak duration, yielding very similar results. Among the countries where the outbreak started after the 15th of February and with at least 1000 registered patients during the period analyzed, the lowest corrected CFR are seen in Israel, South Africa and Chile. The ranking results should be considered with caution as they do not consider all confounding factors or data reporting biases.
has issue date	2020-04-27(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.22.20075580
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	6625c01dc50702d16748bea2bc24b8587dfbfd41
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075580
resource representing a document's title	Untangling factors associated with country-specific COVID-19 incidence, mortality and case fatality rates during the first quarter of 2020
resource representing a document's body	covid:6625c01dc50702d16748bea2bc24b8587dfbfd41#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'correlation' named entity 'fatality' named entity 'started' named entity 'rates' named entity 'patients' named entity 'outbreak' named entity 'Israel' named entity 'correlation' named entity 'latitude' named entity 'Case fatality rate' named entity 'REGISTERED' named entity 'MORTALITY RATES' named entity 'RANK' named entity 'CONSIDERED' named entity '036' named entity 'BIASES' named entity 'YEAR' named entity 'CASE FATALITY RATE' named entity 'PERFORMED' named entity '0.94' named entity '282' covid:arg/6625c01dc50702d16748bea2bc24b8587dfbfd41 named entity 'reach' named entity 'fraction' named entity 'hemisphere' named entity 'ranking' named entity 'duration' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Here' named entity 'rank' named entity 'quarter' named entity 'outbreak' named entity 'fatality' named entity 'correlation' named entity 'Case fatality rate' named entity '3.8' named entity 'data reporting' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'case fatality rate' named entity 'GDP per capita' named entity 'case fatality rate' named entity 'overseas territories of France' named entity 'GDP per capita' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'healthcare systems' named entity 'April 1, 2020' named entity 'CFR' named entity 'population density' named entity 'peer review' named entity 'linear model' named entity 'GDP' named entity 'press freedom' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2 virus' named entity 'China' named entity 'CFR' named entity 'press freedom' named entity 'centroid' named entity 'healthcare service' named entity 'mortality rate' named entity 'centroid' named entity 'press freedom' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'centroid' named entity 'p-values' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'mortality rate' named entity 'multicollinearity' named entity 'Case fatality rates' named entity 'virus' named entity 'Rezza' named entity 'case fatality rates' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Linear approximation' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'GDP' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Reporters without borders' named entity 'WHO' named entity 'epidemy'

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