About: Estimating a breakpoint in the spread pattern of COVID-19 in South Korea

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About: Estimating a breakpoint in the spread pattern of COVID-19 in South Korea Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Estimating a breakpoint in the spread pattern of COVID-19 in South Korea
Creator	Korea, South Kim, Myung Kim, Young-Joo Seo, Myung Yeom, Hyun-E Gu, Gwanak Korea, Young-Joo Ro, Gwanak Seo, Hyun-E Yeom,
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	OBJECTIVES: Amid the global COVID-19 crisis, South Korea has been touted for successfully preventing the spread of the infectious disease, which may be due to the aggressive implementation of preventive policies. We evaluated the spread pattern of COVID-19 in South Korea considering the potential impact of policy interventions on transmission rates. METHODS: The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a breakpoint that allows a change in transmission rate at an unknown point was proposed. Estimated trajectories of COVID-19 from SIR models with and without a breakpoint were compared. RESULTS: The proposed model with a break fitted the actual series of infection case much better than the classic model. The estimated breakpoint was March 7(th) and the transmission rate dropped by 0.23 after the breakpoint. A counterfactual study based on our estimate indicated that the number of the infected could reach 2,500,000 compared to the peak of 8,000 in the observed series. CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to consider a change in the transmission rate to evaluate the spread trajectory of COVID-19 in South Korea. Our estimation and counterfactual experiments indicate that public health interventions may play a role in determining the spread pattern of infectious diseases.
has issue date	2020-06-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.055
bibo:pmid	32569839
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	640f5d8d0f07f8e9c5d4fb8a22fea596fea6b77b
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.055
resource representing a document's title	Estimating a breakpoint in the spread pattern of COVID-19 in South Korea
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7305719
has PubMed identifier	32569839
schema:publication	Int J Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:640f5d8d0f07f8e9c5d4fb8a22fea596fea6b77b#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'breakpoint' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'pattern' named entity 'Journal' named entity 'South Korea' named entity 'Estimating' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'accurately' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'transmission rates' named entity 'COVID-19 in South Korea' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'observed data' named entity 'face masks' named entity 'South Korea' named entity 'black line' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'coronavirus disease' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'infection' named entity 'time series' named entity 'time series' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'black line' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'public health policy' named entity 'South Korea' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity '0.51' named entity 'infection' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'infectious diseases' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'March 14' named entity 'infectious disease' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'empirical evidence' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'infection' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'epidemiological research' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'South Korea' named entity 'contagious disease' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'Korea' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'February 2' named entity 'prevent the spread' named entity 'empirical evidence' named entity 'SIR model' named entity 'public health interventions' named entity 'SSE' named entity 'Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention' named entity 'January 23' named entity 'transmission rate' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'sum of squared error' named entity 'Centers for Disease Control and Prevention' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'SIR model'

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