About: Transient dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as England exited national lockdown

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Transient dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as England exited national lockdown
Creator	Riley, Steven Donnelly, Christl Barclay, Wendy Diggle, Peter Wang, Haowei Walters, Caroline Atchison, Christina Ward, Helen Ainslie, Kylie Ashby, Deborah Cooke, Graham Darzi, Ara Elliott, Paul Eales, Oliver
source	MedRxiv
abstract	Control of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a detailed understanding of prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the population. Case-based surveillance is necessarily biased towards symptomatic individuals and sensitive to varying patterns of reporting in space and time. The real-time assessment of community transmission antigen study (REACT-1) is designed to overcome these limitations by obtaining prevalence data based on a nose and throat swab RT-PCR test among a representative community-based sample in England, including asymptomatic individuals. Here, we describe results comparing rounds 1 and 2 carried out during May and mid June / early July 2020 respectively across 315 lower tier local authority areas. In round 1 we found 159 positive samples from 120,620 tested swabs while round 2 there were 123 positive samples from 159,199 tested swabs, indicating a downwards trend in prevalence from 0.13% (95% CI, 0.11%, 0.15%) to 0.077% (0.065%, 0.092%), a halving time of 38 (28, 58) days, and an R of 0.89 (0.86, 0.93). The proportion of swab-positive participants who were asymptomatic at the time of sampling increased from 69% (61%, 76%) in round 1 to 81% (73%, 87%) in round 2. Although health care and care home workers were infected far more frequently than other workers in round 1, the odds were markedly reduced in round 2. Age patterns of infection changed between rounds, with a reduction by a factor of five in prevalence in 18 to 24 year olds. Our data were suggestive of increased risk of infection in Black and Asian (mainly South Asian) ethnicities. Using regional and detailed case location data, we detected increased infection intensity in and near London. Under multiple sensitivity analyses, our results were robust to the possibility of false positives. At the end of the initial lockdown in England, we found continued decline in prevalence and a shift in the pattern of infection by age and occupation. Community-based sampling, including asymptomatic individuals, is necessary to fully understand the nature of ongoing transmission.
has issue date	2020-08-06(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.08.05.20169078
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	62e81523ced94d76b2e29df1819fa86bed238a91
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.05.20169078
resource representing a document's title	Transient dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as England exited national lockdown
resource representing a document's body	covid:62e81523ced94d76b2e29df1819fa86bed238a91#body_text
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