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About:
Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2
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schema:ScholarlyArticle
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covidontheweb.inria.fr
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document(s)
Type:
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
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type
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title
Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2
Creator
Wang, Wei
Wang, Yan
Viboud, Cécile
Zhan, Zhifei
Yu, Hongjie
Vespignani, Alessandro
Ajelli, Marco
Litvinova, Maria
Zhao, Shanlu
Chen, Xinghui
Luo, Kaiwei
Huang, Yiwei
Liu, Ziyan
Ren, Lingshuang
Sun, Qianlai
source
MedRxiv; Medline
abstract
A long-standing question in infectious disease dynamics is the role of transmission heterogeneities, particularly those driven by demography, behavior and interventions. Here we characterize transmission risk between 1,178 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals and their 15,648 close contacts based on detailed contact tracing data from Hunan, China. We find that 80% of secondary transmissions can be traced back to 14% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, indicating substantial transmission heterogeneities. Regression analysis suggests a marked gradient of transmission risk scales positively with the duration of exposure and the closeness of social interactions, after adjusted for demographic and clinical factors. Population-level physical distancing measures confine transmission to families and households; while case isolation and contact quarantine reduce transmission in all settings. Adjusted for interventions, the reconstructed infectiousness profile of a typical SARS-CoV-2 infection peaks just before symptom presentation, with ~50% of transmission occurring in the pre-symptomatic phase. Modelling results indicate that achieving SARS-CoV-2 control would require the synergistic efforts of case isolation, contact quarantine, and population-level physical distancing measures, owing to the particular transmission kinetics of this virus.
has issue date
2020-08-13
(
xsd:dateTime
)
bibo:doi
10.1101/2020.08.09.20171132
bibo:pmid
32817975
has license
medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)
5ec3a6d38cf3ecf0b59898945b3233f0a3715403
schema:url
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.09.20171132
resource representing a document's title
Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2
has PubMed identifier
32817975
schema:publication
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
resource representing a document's body
covid:5ec3a6d38cf3ecf0b59898945b3233f0a3715403#body_text
is
schema:about
of
named entity 'synergistic'
named entity 'Regression analysis'
named entity 'heterogeneities'
named entity 'physical distancing'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'social interactions'
named entity 'heterogeneities'
named entity 'symptom'
named entity 'contact-tracing'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity '95% CI'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'symptom'
named entity 'infection status'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'COVID-19'
named entity 'quarantine'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity 'quarantine'
named entity 'dashed'
named entity 'preprint'
named entity 'viral shedding'
named entity 'informed consent'
named entity 'symptom'
named entity 'individual-based'
named entity 'Mann-Whitney U test'
named entity 'risk factor'
named entity 'fever'
named entity 'physical distancing'
named entity 'epidemic'
named entity 'Hunan'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'Hunan'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'Physical distancing'
named entity 'Contour lines'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'symptom'
named entity 'independent variables'
named entity 'preprint'
named entity 'physical distancing'
named entity 'asymptomatic'
named entity 'peer review'
named entity 'IQR'
named entity 'database'
named entity 'logistic regression'
named entity 'Wuhan'
named entity '95% CI'
named entity 'risk of transmission'
named entity 'Dry Cough'
named entity 'contact-tracing'
named entity 'heterogeneities'
named entity 'contact tracing'
named entity 'database'
named entity 'Hunan'
named entity 'SARS-CoV-2'
named entity 'infection'
named entity 'physical distancing'
named entity 'symptom'
named entity 'incubation period'
named entity 'quarantine'
named entity 'infection'
named entity '1.10'
named entity 'pre-symptomatic'
named entity 'Hubei'
named entity 'exponential growth'
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