About: The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study

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About: The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study
Creator	Liu, Yang Klepac, Petra Diamond, Charlie Flasche, Stefan Gibbs, Hamish Jit, Mark Prem, Kiesha Clifford, Samuel Eggo, Rosalind Jarvis, Christopher Pearson, Carl Quilty, Billy Russell, Timothy
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: To contain the spread of COVID-19, a cordon sanitaire was put in place in Wuhan prior to the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2020. We assess the efficacy of the cordon sanitaire to delay the introduction and onset of local transmission of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China. METHODS: We estimated the number of infected travellers from Wuhan to other major cities in mainland China from November 2019 to February 2020 using previously estimated COVID-19 prevalence in Wuhan and publicly available mobility data. We focused on Beijing, Chongqing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as four representative major cities to identify the potential independent contribution of the cordon sanitaire and holiday travel. To do this, we simulated outbreaks generated by infected arrivals in these destination cities using stochastic branching processes. We also modelled the effect of the cordon sanitaire in combination with reduced transmissibility scenarios to simulate the effect of local non-pharmaceutical interventions. RESULTS: We find that in the four cities, given the potentially high prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan between December 2019 and early January 2020, local transmission may have been seeded as early as 1–8 January 2020. By the time the cordon sanitaire was imposed, infections were likely in the thousands. The cordon sanitaire alone did not substantially affect the epidemic progression in these cities, although it may have had some effect in smaller cities. Reduced transmissibility resulted in a notable decrease in the incidence of infection in the four studied cities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that sustained transmission was likely occurring several weeks prior to the implementation of the cordon sanitaire in four major cities of mainland China and that the observed decrease in incidence was likely attributable to other non-pharmaceutical, transmission-reducing interventions.
has issue date	2020-08-19(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9
bibo:pmid	32814572
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	5a753323ca84399715d008f38f89990a894a229f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9
resource representing a document's title	The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7437104
has PubMed identifier	32814572
schema:publication	BMC Med
resource representing a document's body	covid:5a753323ca84399715d008f38f89990a894a229f#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'weeks' named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'travel' named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'Beijing' named entity 'destination' named entity 'February' named entity 'Results' named entity 'major' named entity 'modelled' named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'stochastic' named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'local transmission' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'mainland China' named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'pharmaceutical' named entity 'pharmaceutical' named entity 'China' named entity 'focused' named entity 'infection status' named entity 'transmissibility' named entity 'travel restrictions' named entity 'Chunyun' named entity 'TWR' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'negative binomial' named entity 'LNY' named entity 'China' named entity 'Beijing' named entity 'Chunyun' named entity 'local transmission' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'mainland China' named entity '2.0' named entity 'Chunyun' named entity 'coronavirus disease 2019' named entity 'local transmission' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'observational study' named entity 'probability' named entity '2.2' named entity 'Beijing' named entity 'reproduction number' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'physical distancing' named entity 'cordon sanitaire' named entity 'epidemiology' named entity 'Chunyun' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'effective reproduction number' named entity '1.1' named entity 'Shenzhen' named entity '23 January' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'virus'

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