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About:
Chaos in a seasonally perturbed SIR model: avian influenza in a seabird colony as a paradigm
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covidontheweb.inria.fr
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Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
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type
Academic Article
research paper
schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy
Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title
Chaos in a seasonally perturbed SIR model: avian influenza in a seabird colony as a paradigm
Creator
Kelly, C
Kelly, T
Korobeinikov, Andrei
Macsi, A
Michael, ·
O', S
O', Suzanne
O'callaghan, J
O'callaghan, M
O'regan, S
Pokrovskii, Alexei
Pokrovskii, ·
Rachinskii, Dmitrii
Rachinskii, ·
Thomas, Regan
Source
PMC
abstract
Seasonality is a complex force in nature that affects multiple processes in wild animal populations. In particular, seasonal variations in demographic processes may considerably affect the persistence of a pathogen in these populations. Furthermore, it has been long observed in computer simulations that under seasonal perturbations, a host–pathogen system can exhibit complex dynamics, including the transition to chaos, as the magnitude of the seasonal perturbation increases. In this paper, we develop a seasonally perturbed Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of avian influenza in a seabird colony. Numerical simulations of the model give rise to chaotic recurrent epidemics for parameters that reflect the ecology of avian influenza in a seabird population, thereby providing a case study for chaos in a host– pathogen system. We give a computer-assisted exposition of the existence of chaos in the model using methods that are based on the concept of topological hyperbolicity. Our approach elucidates the geometry of the chaos in the phase space of the model, thereby offering a mechanism for the persistence of the infection. Finally, the methods described in this paper may be immediately extended to other infections and hosts, including humans.
has issue date
2012-05-31
(
xsd:dateTime
)
bibo:doi
10.1007/s00285-012-0550-9
bibo:pmid
22648788
has license
no-cc
sha1sum (hex)
51ccea85cce23c2d48241d571dd15544e1f3690a
schema:url
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-012-0550-9
resource representing a document's title
Chaos in a seasonally perturbed SIR model: avian influenza in a seabird colony as a paradigm
has PubMed Central identifier
PMC7080170
has PubMed identifier
22648788
schema:publication
J Math Biol
resource representing a document's body
covid:51ccea85cce23c2d48241d571dd15544e1f3690a#body_text
is
schema:about
of
named entity 'affect'
named entity 'geometry'
named entity 'infections'
named entity 'perturbed'
named entity 'chaos'
named entity 'pathogen'
named entity 'MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY'
named entity 'OBSERVED'
named entity 'GEOMETRY'
named entity 'FORCE'
named entity 'DYNAMICS'
named entity 'CONCEPT'
named entity 'IS A'
named entity 'SEASONALITY'
named entity 'PERTURBATION'
named entity 'EPIDEMICS'
named entity 'CHAOTIC'
named entity 'WILD ANIMAL'
named entity 'PERSISTENCE'
named entity 'MECHANISM'
named entity 'PATHOGEN'
named entity 'HOST'
named entity 'COMPUTER SIMULATIONS'
named entity 'RISE'
named entity 'AFFECT'
named entity 'COMPUTER'
named entity 'OFFERING'
named entity 'SPACE'
named entity 'MULTIPLE'
named entity 'PROCESSES'
named entity 'USING'
named entity 'MAGNITUDE'
named entity 'ECOLOGY'
named entity 'PARTICULAR'
named entity 'THESE'
named entity 'SUSCEPTIBLE'
named entity 'TRANSITION'
named entity 'HUMANS'
named entity 'BASED'
named entity 'SEABIRD'
named entity 'RECOVERED'
named entity 'ASSISTED'
named entity 'RECURRENT'
named entity 'INFECTED'
named entity 'PARADIGM'
named entity 'SEABIRD'
named entity 'AVIAN INFLUENZA'
named entity 'CHAOS'
named entity 'INFECTIONS'
named entity 'MODEL'
named entity 'SEASONAL'
named entity 'NATURE'
named entity 'EXTENDED'
named entity 'IMMEDIATELY'
named entity 'NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS'
named entity 'PARAMETERS'
named entity 'CASE STUDY'
named entity 'SYSTEM'
named entity 'MAY BE'
named entity 'COLONY'
named entity 'SEASONAL VARIATIONS'
named entity 'EXHIBIT'
named entity 'CHAOS'
named entity 'PROVIDING'
named entity 'LONG'
named entity 'HYPERBOLICITY'
named entity 'PAPER'
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