About: Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations

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About: Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
Creator	Frca, Mbchb Goldstein, Guy-Philippe Kai, De Morgunov, Alexey Nangalia, Vishal Rotkirch, Anna
Source	ArXiv
abstract	We present two models for the COVID-19 pandemic predicting the impact of universal face mask wearing upon the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus--one employing a stochastic dynamic network based compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) approach, and the other employing individual ABM (agent-based modelling) Monte Carlo simulation--indicating (1) significant impact under (near) universal masking when at least 80% of a population is wearing masks, versus minimal impact when only 50% or less of the population is wearing masks, and (2) significant impact when universal masking is adopted early, by Day 50 of a regional outbreak, versus minimal impact when universal masking is adopted late. These effects hold even at the lower filtering rates of homemade masks. To validate these theoretical models, we compare their predictions against a new empirical data set we have collected that includes whether regions have universal masking cultures or policies, their daily case growth rates, and their percentage reduction from peak daily case growth rates. Results show a near perfect correlation between early universal masking and successful suppression of daily case growth rates and/or reduction from peak daily case growth rates, as predicted by our theoretical simulations. Our theoretical and empirical results argue for urgent implementation of universal masking. As governments plan how to exit societal lockdowns, it is emerging as a key NPI; a%22mouth-and-nose lockdown%22is far more sustainable than a%22full body lockdown%22, on economic, social, and mental health axes. An interactive visualization of the ABM simulation is at http://dek.ai/masks4all. We recommend immediate mask wearing recommendations, official guidelines for correct use, and awareness campaigns to shift masking mindsets away from pure self-protection, towards aspirational goals of responsibly protecting one's community.
has issue date	2020-04-22(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	461329bb85f6fce543050a890175d979a911135b
resource representing a document's title	Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations
resource representing a document's body	covid:461329bb85f6fce543050a890175d979a911135b#body_text
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