About: Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study

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About: Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study
Creator	Wang, Wei Wang, Yan Wu, Peng Yu, Hongjie Viboud, Cecile Yang, Juan Vespignani, Alessandro Ajelli, Marco Merler, Stefano Wang, Xiling Zhang, Juanjuan Li, Mei Cowling, Benjamin Chen, Xinhua Deng, Xiaowei Liang, Yuxia Litvinova, Maria Longini, Ira Sun, Kaiyuan Wu, Qianhui Yi, Lan Zheng, Wen Chen, Xinghui Halloran, Elizabeth
source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan city, Hubei province, in December, 2019, and has spread throughout China. Understanding the evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy. METHODS: We collected individual information from official public sources on laboratory-confirmed cases reported outside Hubei in mainland China for the period of Jan 19 to Feb 17, 2020. We used the date of the fourth revision of the case definition (Jan 27) to divide the epidemic into two time periods (Dec 24 to Jan 27, and Jan 28 to Feb 17) as the date of symptom onset. We estimated trends in the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (R(t)) at the provincial level. FINDINGS: We collected data on 8579 cases from 30 provinces. The median age of cases was 44 years (33–56), with an increasing proportion of cases in younger age groups and in elderly people (ie, aged >64 years) as the epidemic progressed. The mean time from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4·4 days (95% CI 0·0–14·0) for the period of Dec 24 to Jan 27, to 2·6 days (0·0–9·0) for the period of Jan 28 to Feb 17. The mean incubation period for the entire period was estimated at 5·2 days (1·8–12·4) and the mean serial interval at 5·1 days (1·3–11·6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei were highly variable but consistently included a mixture of case importations and local transmission. We estimated that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than 3 weeks, with mean Rt reaching peaks between 1·08 (95% CI 0·74–1·54) in Shenzhen city of Guangdong province and 1·71 (1·32–2·17) in Shandong province. In all the locations for which we had sufficient data coverage of Rt, Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold (ie, <1) after Jan 30. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the incubation period and serial interval were similar, suggesting an early peak of infectiousness, with possible transmission before the onset of symptoms. Our results also indicate that, as the epidemic progressed, infectious individuals were isolated more quickly, thus shortening the window of transmission in the community. Overall, our findings indicate that strict containment measures, movement restrictions, and increased awareness of the population might have contributed to interrupt local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 outside Hubei province. FUNDING: National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and European Commission Horizon 2020.
has issue date	2020-04-02(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30230-9
bibo:pmid	32247326
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	39952e9c33fd437590d1266009b5b8855d9f07b2
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099%2820%2930230-9
resource representing a document's title	Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7269887
has PubMed identifier	32247326
schema:publication	Lancet Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:39952e9c33fd437590d1266009b5b8855d9f07b2#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'city' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'transmission' named entity 'HUBEI PROVINCE' named entity 'CITY' named entity 'policy' named entity 'epidemiology' named entity 'December' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Understanding' named entity '2019' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Hubei province' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID-19 outbreak' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'travel restrictions' named entity 'radiographic' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'lognormal' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'Jiangxi' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'China' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'COVID' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'China' named entity 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' named entity 'epidemiology' named entity 'quarantine' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'mathematical modelling' named entity 'fever' named entity 'Shandong' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'public health emergency of international concern' named entity 'Hunan' named entity 'nCoV' named entity 'epidemic' named entity 'epidemiological' named entity 'Shandong' named entity 'epidemiology' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'white blood cell count' named entity 'symptom' named entity 'serial interval' named entity 'gamma distribution'

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