About: Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks
Creator	Nishiura, Hiroshi Yan, Ping Author, Biol Mode, Charles Sleeman, Candace Theor, J
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	Use of the final size distribution of minor outbreaks for the estimation of the reproduction numbers of supercritical epidemic processes has yet to be considered. We used a branching process model to derive the final size distribution of minor outbreaks, assuming a reproduction number above unity, and applying the method to final size data for pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is a rare disease with only one documented major epidemic in a spatially limited setting. Because the final size distribution of a minor outbreak needs to be normalized by the probability of extinction, we assume that the dispersion parameter (k) of the negative-binomial offspring distribution is known, and examine the sensitivity of the reproduction number to variation in dispersion. Assuming a geometric offspring distribution with k = 1, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.97–1.38). When less dispersed with k = 2, the maximum likelihood estimate of the reproduction number was 1.14. These estimates agreed with those published from transmission network analysis, indicating that the human-to-human transmission potential of the pneumonic plague is not very high. Given only minor outbreaks, transmission potential is not sufficiently assessed by directly counting the number of offspring. Since the absence of a major epidemic does not guarantee a subcritical process, the proposed method allows us to conservatively regard epidemic data from minor outbreaks as supercritical, and yield estimates of threshold values above unity.
has issue date	2012-02-01(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.10.039
bibo:pmid	22079419
has license	green-oa
sha1sum (hex)	318d988bf7465f15234a2d307666f12b2d653e91
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.10.039
resource representing a document's title	Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC3249525
has PubMed identifier	22079419
schema:publication	Journal of Theoretical Biology
resource representing a document's body	covid:318d988bf7465f15234a2d307666f12b2d653e91#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'number' named entity 'process' named entity 'These' named entity 'transmission' named entity 'processes' named entity 'supercritical' named entity 'OUTBREAKS' named entity 'AUTHOR' named entity 'PUBLIC' named entity 'SIZE DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'THRESHOLD' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'APPLYING' named entity 'A MINOR' named entity 'NUMBERS' named entity 'PROCESS MODEL' named entity 'SIZE DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'DISPERSION' named entity 'NEEDS' named entity 'ABSENCE OF' named entity 'UNITY' named entity 'DOES NOT' named entity 'USED' named entity 'CONFIDENCE INTERVAL' named entity 'VERY HIGH' named entity 'ESTIMATED' named entity 'NORMALIZED' named entity 'PNEUMONIC PLAGUE' named entity 'KNOWN' named entity 'HUMAN' named entity 'REPRODUCTION NUMBER' named entity 'NETWORK ANALYSIS' named entity 'NEGATIVE' named entity 'BRANCHING PROCESS' named entity 'METHOD' named entity 'SENSITIVITY' named entity 'FINAL' named entity 'POTENTIAL' named entity 'SETTING' named entity 'ESTIMATES' named entity 'ESTIMATION' named entity 'REPRODUCTION' named entity 'COUNTING' named entity 'SIZE' named entity 'INDICATING' named entity 'PARAMETER' named entity 'OUTBREAKS' named entity 'VALUES' named entity 'YIELD' named entity 'NUMBER OF OFFSPRING' named entity 'CONSIDERED' named entity 'MAJOR' named entity 'DISPERSED' named entity 'PROCESSES' named entity 'ALLOWS' named entity 'PROBABILITY OF' named entity 'REGARD' named entity 'FINAL' named entity 'GIVEN' named entity 'DOCUMENTED' named entity 'NIH' named entity 'POTENTIAL' named entity 'ASSESSED' named entity 'MINOR' named entity 'RARE DISEASE' named entity 'MINOR' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'MANUSCRIPT' named entity 'DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'DIRECTLY' named entity 'THESE' named entity 'IS A' named entity 'OFFSPRING' named entity 'USE OF' named entity 'TRANSMISSION' named entity 'DATA'

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