About: A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting
Creator	Beckman, R Marathe, M Nagaraj, K Nsoesie, E Shashaani, S
Source	PMC
abstract	Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area.
has issue date	2013-06-27(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1371/journal.pone.0067164
bibo:pmid	23826222
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	3154395f4f53dd3c358e5ba72e394f9334430cef
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067164
resource representing a document's title	A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC3694918
has PubMed identifier	23826222
schema:publication	PLoS One
resource representing a document's body	covid:3154395f4f53dd3c358e5ba72e394f9334430cef#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'FORECASTING' named entity 'SIMULATION' named entity 'seasonal' named entity 'epidemic curve' named entity 'OPTIMIZATION' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'OUTBREAKS' named entity 'FORECASTS' named entity 'METHOD' named entity 'SURROUNDING' named entity 'MIAMI' named entity 'OPTIMIZATION METHOD' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'APPROACH' named entity 'OPTIMIZATION' named entity 'SIMULATED' named entity 'METROPOLITAN' named entity 'SOCIAL NETWORKS' named entity 'AID' named entity 'SEATTLE' named entity 'COMPLEX' named entity 'REGIONS' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'PROCEDURE' named entity 'PRELIMINARY' named entity 'COMBINES' named entity 'NETWORK' named entity 'SYNTHETIC' named entity 'APPROACH' named entity 'SIMULATION' named entity 'USED' named entity 'PROJECT' named entity 'FORECAST' named entity 'NELDER-MEAD' named entity 'THE PEAK' named entity 'INFLUENZA' named entity 'INTRODUCE' named entity 'RELIABLE' named entity 'STEP' named entity 'VIRGINIA' named entity 'INFER' named entity 'SUGGEST' named entity 'AREA' named entity 'PANDEMIC' named entity 'ACTUAL' named entity 'INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC' named entity 'CLASSIFICATION' named entity 'IS A' named entity 'MONTGOMERY COUNTY' named entity 'STUDY' named entity 'COULD BE' named entity 'PERIOD' named entity 'FINAL STEP' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'CURVE' named entity 'PRESENTED' named entity 'SIMPLEX' named entity 'MODEL PARAMETERS' named entity 'RESULTS' named entity 'USING' named entity 'FORECASTING' named entity 'SEASONAL' named entity 'PEAK' named entity 'STATISTICAL' named entity 'EPIDEMICS' named entity 'COMBINATION' named entity 'PROBLEM' named entity 'PREDICTED' named entity 'TIME' named entity 'TOTAL' named entity 'UNDERLYING' named entity 'SEVEN' named entity 'TECHNIQUES' named entity 'INFECTED' named entity 'CONTROL' named entity 'WEEKS'

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