About: Insights into the Evolution and Emergence of a Novel Infectious Disease

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Insights into the Evolution and Emergence of a Novel Infectious Disease
Creator	Arinaminpathy, N Kubiak, R Mclean, A
Source	PMC
abstract	Many zoonotic, novel infectious diseases in humans appear as sporadic infections with spatially and temporally restricted outbreaks, as seen with influenza A(H5N1). Adaptation is often a key factor for successfully establishing sustained human-to-human transmission. Here we use simple mathematical models to describe different adaptation scenarios with particular reference to spatial heterogeneity within the human population. We present analytical expressions for the probability of emergence per introduction, as well as the waiting time to a successful emergence event. Furthermore, we derive general analytical results for the statistical properties of emergence events, including the probability distribution of outbreak sizes. We compare our analytical results with a stochastic model, which has previously been studied computationally. Our results suggest that, for typical connection strengths between communities, spatial heterogeneity has only a weak effect on outbreak size distributions, and on the risk of emergence per introduction. For example, if [Image: see text] or larger, any village connected to a large city by just ten commuters a day is, effectively, just a part of the city when considering the chances of emergence and the outbreak size distribution. We present empirical data on commuting patterns and show that the vast majority of communities for which such data are available are at least this well interconnected. For plausible parameter ranges, the effects of spatial heterogeneity are likely to be dominated by the evolutionary biology of host adaptation. We conclude by discussing implications for surveillance and control of emerging infections.
has issue date	2010-09-30(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000947
bibo:pmid	20941384
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	303dd57924047b30670081699eb8c991bf0f41b5
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000947
resource representing a document's title	Insights into the Evolution and Emergence of a Novel Infectious Disease
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC2947978
has PubMed identifier	20941384
schema:publication	PLoS Comput Biol
resource representing a document's body	covid:303dd57924047b30670081699eb8c991bf0f41b5#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'INSIGHTS' named entity 'REFERENCE' named entity 'EFFECT' named entity 'AVAILABLE' named entity 'USE' named entity 'WEAK' named entity 'STATISTICAL' named entity 'KEY' named entity 'DIFFERENT' named entity 'SUSTAINED' named entity 'EMPIRICAL DATA' named entity 'PROPERTIES' named entity 'SIZE DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'ADAPTATION' named entity 'SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY' named entity 'HERE' named entity 'RISK OF' named entity 'HUMAN' named entity 'COMMUNITIES' named entity 'SEEN' named entity 'PARTICULAR' named entity 'CHANCES' named entity 'INFECTIONS' named entity 'EXPRESSIONS' named entity 'CONSIDERING' named entity 'LARGER' named entity 'PARAMETER' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'INFECTIOUS DISEASES' named entity 'PROBABILITY OF' named entity 'CONCLUDE' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'OUR' named entity 'PART OF' named entity 'STRENGTHS' named entity 'CONNECTION' named entity 'LIKELY' named entity 'INFLUENZA A' named entity 'THE CITY' named entity 'MAJORITY' named entity 'PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION' named entity 'COMPARE' named entity 'SCENARIOS' named entity 'INCLUDING' named entity 'OUTBREAKS' named entity 'PRESENT' named entity 'DISTRIBUTIONS' named entity 'VILLAGE' named entity 'EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY' named entity 'SURVEILLANCE' named entity 'GENERAL' named entity 'JUST' covid:arg/303dd57924047b30670081699eb8c991bf0f41b5 named entity 'HUMANS' named entity 'SIZE' named entity 'EMERGENCE' named entity 'EVOLUTION' named entity 'NOVEL' named entity 'INFECTIOUS DISEASE' named entity 'NOVEL' named entity 'COMMUTING' named entity 'EMERGENCE' named entity 'LARGE' named entity 'HOST' named entity 'FACTOR' named entity 'EVENT' named entity 'RESULTS' named entity 'SIMPLE' named entity 'ESTABLISHING' named entity 'CONTROL' named entity 'PREVIOUSLY' named entity 'HUMAN POPULATION' named entity 'PATTERNS' named entity 'WAITING TIME' named entity 'TYPICAL' named entity '3A4' named entity 'INTRODUCTION' named entity 'DAY' named entity 'EVENTS'

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