About: Using Machine Learning to Estimate Unobserved COVID-19 Infections in North America

Facets (new session)
Description
Metadata
Settings
- owl:sameAs
- Inference Rule:

About: Using Machine Learning to Estimate Unobserved COVID-19 Infections in North America Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Using Machine Learning to Estimate Unobserved COVID-19 Infections in North America
Creator	Bhandari, Mohit Cakan, Caglar Vaid, Shashank
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	The detection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases remains a huge challenge. As of April 22, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to take its toll, with >2.6 million confirmed infections and >183,000 deaths. Dire projections are surfacing almost every day, and policymakers worldwide are using projections for critical decisions. Given this background, we modeled unobserved infections to examine the extent to which we might be grossly underestimating COVID-19 infections in North America. METHODS: We developed a machine-learning model to uncover hidden patterns based on reported cases and to predict potential infections. First, our model relied on dimensionality reduction to identify parameters that were key to uncovering hidden patterns. Next, our predictive analysis used an unbiased hierarchical Bayesian estimator approach to infer past infections from current fatalities. RESULTS: Our analysis indicates that, when we assumed a 13-day lag time from infection to death, the United States, as of April 22, 2020, likely had at least 1.3 million undetected infections. With a longer lag time—for example, 23 days—there could have been at least 1.7 million undetected infections. Given these assumptions, the number of undetected infections in Canada could have ranged from 60,000 to 80,000. Duarte’s elegant unbiased estimator approach suggested that, as of April 22, 2020, the United States had up to >1.6 million undetected infections and Canada had at least 60,000 to 86,000 undetected infections. However, the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering data feed on April 22, 2020, reported only 840,476 and 41,650 confirmed cases for the United States and Canada, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified 2 key findings: (1) as of April 22, 2020, the United States may have had 1.5 to 2.029 times the number of reported infections and Canada may have had 1.44 to 2.06 times the number of reported infections and (2) even if we assume that the fatality and growth rates in the unobservable population (undetected infections) are similar to those in the observable population (confirmed infections), the number of undetected infections may be within ranges similar to those described above. In summary, 2 different approaches indicated similar ranges of undetected infections in North America. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level V. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
has issue date	2020-05-07(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.2106/jbjs.20.00715
bibo:pmid	32618918
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	2def30e8e07cb1607e44c5e94dae4be1338bc003
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.2106/jbjs.20.00715
resource representing a document's title	Using Machine Learning to Estimate Unobserved COVID-19 Infections in North America
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7396213
has PubMed identifier	32618918
schema:publication	J Bone Joint Surg Am
resource representing a document's body	covid:2def30e8e07cb1607e44c5e94dae4be1338bc003#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'North America' named entity 'Machine Learning' named entity 'risk of death' named entity 'U.S.' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'Canada' named entity '2.6 million' named entity 'dashed' named entity 'levels of evidence' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'asymptomatic carriers' named entity 'North America' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'U.S.' named entity 'unbiased estimator' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'WHO' named entity '60,000' named entity '2.02' named entity 'U.S.' named entity 'case fatality rates' named entity 'peer-reviewed' named entity 'North America' named entity 'Esri' named entity 'dashed' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'detection bias' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'dashed' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'recession' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'United States' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'Johns Hopkins University' named entity 'social distancing' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'U.S.' named entity '1 million' named entity 'Spain' named entity 'France' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'Hong Kong' named entity 'Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'Great Depression' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'COVID-19 pandemic' named entity '8 days' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'detection bias' named entity 'North America' named entity 'U.S.' named entity 'United States' named entity 'exploratory data analysis' named entity 'United States' named entity 'U.S.' named entity 'detection bias' named entity 'World Health Organization' named entity 'grouped data' named entity 'Canada' named entity 'fatality rate' named entity 'U.S.' named entity 'case fatality rate' named entity 'multidimensional analysis' named entity '5.7%' named entity 'North America' named entity 'dimensionality reduction' named entity 'India' named entity 'North America' named entity '60,000' named entity 'India' named entity 'incubation period'

Faceted Search & Find service v1.13.91 as of Mar 24 2020

Alternative Linked Data Documents: Sponger | ODE Content Formats:

RDF

ODATA

Microdata

About

OpenLink Virtuoso version 07.20.3229 as of Jul 10 2020, on Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu), Single-Server Edition (94 GB total memory)
Data on this page belongs to its respective rights holders.
Virtuoso Faceted Browser Copyright © 2009-2024 OpenLink Software