About: Characterizing key attributes of the epidemiology of COVID-19 in China: Model-based estimations

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Characterizing key attributes of the epidemiology of COVID-19 in China: Model-based estimations
Creator	Abu-Raddad, Laith Awad, Susanne Ayoub, Houssein Chemaitelly, Hiam Makhoul, Monia Mumtaz, Ghina Seedat, Shaheen
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: A novel coronavirus strain, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China in late 2019. The resulting disease, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-2019), soon became a pandemic. This study aims to characterize key attributes of the epidemiology of this infection in China. Methods: An age-stratified mathematical model was constructed to describe the transmission dynamics and estimate the age-specific differences in the biological susceptibility to the infection, age-assortativeness in transmission mixing, case fatality rate (CFR), and transition in rate of infectious contacts (and reproduction number R0) following introduction of mass interventions. Results: The model estimated the infectious contact rate in early epidemic at 0.59 contacts per day (95% uncertainty interval (UI)=0.48-0.71). Relative to those 60-69 years of age, susceptibility to the infection was only 0.06 in those ≤19 years, 0.34 in 20-29 years, 0.57 in 30-39 years, 0.69 in 40-49 years, 0.79 in 50-59 years, 0.94 in 70-79 years, and 0.88 in ≥80 years. The assortativeness in transmission mixing by age was very limited at 0.004 (95% UI=0.002-0.008). Final CFR was 5.1% (95% UI=4.8-5.4%). R0 rapidly declined from 2.1 (95% UI=1.8-2.4) to 0.06 (95% UI=0.05-0.07) following onset of interventions. Conclusion: Age appears to be a principal factor in explaining the patterns of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in China. The biological susceptibility to the infection seems limited among children, intermediate among young to mid-age adults, but high among those >50 years of age. There was no evidence for differential contact mixing by age, consistent with most transmission occurring in households rather than in schools or workplaces.
has issue date	2020-04-11(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.08.20058214
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	2585ffe08e4631a4ed0d59aa2c41c508bbe0fd69
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058214
resource representing a document's title	Characterizing key attributes of the epidemiology of COVID-19 in China: Model-based estimations
resource representing a document's body	covid:2585ffe08e4631a4ed0d59aa2c41c508bbe0fd69#body_text
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