About: Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective
Creator	Farmer, J Beinhocker, Eric Innocenti, Stefania Lafond, François Maria Del Rio-Chanona, R Mealy, ‡ Muellbauer, John Pangallo, Marco Pichler, Anton
Source	ArXiv
abstract	We provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks for the U.S. economy associated with the COVID-19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyze the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labor Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 22% of the US economy's GDP, jeopardise 24% of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17%. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks -- we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network.
has issue date	2020-04-14(xsd:dateTime)
has license	arxiv
sha1sum (hex)	2190a91bcb4d72ca47b8d1414e7ea7b8ae743701
resource representing a document's title	Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective
resource representing a document's body	covid:2190a91bcb4d72ca47b8d1414e7ea7b8ae743701#body_text
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