About: Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

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About: Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Creator	Li, Jing Wang, Wei Wang, Yan Wang, Lili Wu, Peng Yu, Hongjie Viboud, Cecile Yang, Juan Ajelli, Marco Wang, Xiling Zhang, Yongli Gong, Hui Zhang, Juanjuan Cowling, Benjamin Zhou, Jiaxin Deng, Xiaowei Sun, Kaiyuan Yan, Han Chen, Zhiyuan Qiu, Qi Chen, Yinzi Wei, Xianglin
source	Medline; PMC
abstract	OBJECTIVE: To assess the case fatality risk (CFR) of COVID-19 in mainland China, stratified by region and clinical category, and estimate key time-to-event intervals. METHODS: We collected individual information and aggregated data on COVID-19 cases from publicly available official sources from December 29, 2019 to April 17, 2020. We accounted for right-censoring to estimate the CFR and explored the risk factors for mortality. We fitted Weibull, gamma, and lognormal distributions to time-to-event data using maximum-likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We analyzed 82,719 laboratory-confirmed cases reported in mainland China, including 4,632 deaths, and 77,029 discharges. The estimated CFR was 5.65% (95%CI: 5.50%-5.81%) nationally, with highest estimate in Wuhan (7.71%), and lowest in provinces outside Hubei (0.86%). The fatality risk among critical patients was 3.6 times that of all patients, and 0.8-10.3 fold higher than that of mild-to-severe patients. Older age (OR 1.14 per year; 95%CI: 1.11-1.16), and being male (OR 1.83; 95%CI: 1.10-3.04) were risk factors for mortality. The time from symptom onset to first healthcare consultation, time from symptom onset to laboratory confirmation, and time from symptom onset to hospitalization were consistently longer for deceased patients than for those who recovered. CONCLUSIONS: Our CFR estimates based on laboratory-confirmed cases ascertained in mainland China suggest that COVID-19 is more severe than the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in hospitalized patients, particularly in Wuhan. Our study provides a comprehensive picture of the severity of the first wave of the pandemic in China. Our estimates can help inform models and the global response to COVID-19.
has issue date	2020-05-15(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1093/cid/ciaa578
bibo:pmid	32409826
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	1d4c1bc9136bb37516bfad2cb25a13c41b3dbebb
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa578
resource representing a document's title	Case fatality risk of the first pandemic wave of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7239217
has PubMed identifier	32409826
schema:publication	Clin Infect Dis
resource representing a document's body	covid:1d4c1bc9136bb37516bfad2cb25a13c41b3dbebb#body_text
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