About: The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures

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About: The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures
Creator	Bertuzzo, Enrico Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Rinaldo, Andrea Pasetto, Damiano
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	We examine the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Italy, to address the appropriate methodological choices for the design of selective relaxations of the current containment measures. Pressing relevance stems from the need to restart the economy dramatically affected by the lockdown. We employ a spatially explicit, data-intensive model of the patterns of disease spread in Italy, with the goal of providing tools to: estimate the baseline trajectory, i.e. the expected unfolding of the outbreak if the current containment measures were kept in place indefinitely; assess possible deviations from the baseline, should relaxations of the current lockdown result in increased disease transmission; and estimate the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. For instance, a 50% increase in effective transmission as a result of the loosening of confinement measures, to be instated on May 4, yields an epidemic curve that shows a major rebound larger than the previous peaks in most regions. A control effort, capable of isolating a daily percentage of approximately 7% of the individuals in the exposed and pre-symptomatic stages, proves necessary to counterbalance such an increase, and maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We explore several scenarios, provide the basic data to design the related control strategies and discuss their feasibility. Should suitable control via tracing and testing prove unfeasible, stop-and-go enforcement or delay of the lockdown relaxations would be necessary to reduce the isolation effort required to maintain the epidemic trajectory under control.
has issue date	2020-05-05(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.30.20083568
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	18aacfe07a9f1ea7bab082650272153085db8236
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.30.20083568
resource representing a document's title	The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures
resource representing a document's body	covid:18aacfe07a9f1ea7bab082650272153085db8236#body_text
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