About: Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study
Creator	Khan, Kamran Watts, Alexander Yu, Hongjie Lai, Shengjie Lu, Xin Yang, Weizhong Bogoch, Isaac Ruktanonchai, Nick Tatem, Andrew
Source	MedRxiv; Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan City, China, at the end of 2019 and has caused an outbreak of human-to-human transmission with a Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared by the World Health Organization on January 30, 2020. AIM: We aimed to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) spread within and beyond China from January through to April, 2020. METHODS: A series of domestic and international travel network-based connectivity and risk analyses were performed, by using de-identified and aggregated mobile phone data, air passenger itinerary data, and case reports. RESULTS: The cordon sanitaire of Wuhan is likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city before Lunar New Year (LNY), with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 – 1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of mainland China during the two weeks prior to Wuhan’s lockdown. The majority of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted importation risks and reported cases. Because significant spread has already occurred, a large number of airline travellers (3.3 million under the scenario of 75% travel reduction from normal volumes) may be required to be screened at origin high-risk cities in China and destinations across the globe for the following three months of February to April, 2020 to effectively limit spread beyond its current extent. CONCLUSION: Further spread of 2019-nCoV within China and international exportation is likely to occur. All countries, especially vulnerable regions, should be prepared for efforts to contain the 2019-nCoV infection.
has issue date	2020-03-09(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479
bibo:pmid	32511631
has license	cc-by-nc
sha1sum (hex)	15edf9aaa1a017841e347a97d2d1a3b6443ea366
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479
resource representing a document's title	Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7276059
has PubMed identifier	32511631
schema:publication	medRxiv
resource representing a document's body	covid:15edf9aaa1a017841e347a97d2d1a3b6443ea366#body_text
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