About: Growth rate and acceleration analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the effect of public health measures in real time

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About: Growth rate and acceleration analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the effect of public health measures in real time Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Growth rate and acceleration analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the effect of public health measures in real time
Creator	De Cássia Paula, Silvana Donato Castellane S/N -Jaboticabal, Paulo Fernando Garcia, José Milanesi, Marco Pintor Torrecilha, Rafaela Sp, / Taiti, Adam Utsunomiya, Harth Utsunomiya, Yuri
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	Background: Ending the COVID-19 pandemic is arguably one of the most prominent challenges in recent human history. Following closely the growth dynamics of the disease is one of the pillars towards achieving that goal. Objective: We aimed at developing a simple framework to facilitate the analysis of the growth rate (cases/day) and growth acceleration (cases/day^2) of COVID-19 cases in real-time. Methods: The framework was built using the Moving Regression (MR) technique and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The dynamics of the pandemic was initially modeled via combinations of four different growth stages: lagging (beginning of the outbreak), exponential (rapid growth), deceleration (growth decay) and stationary (near zero growth). A fifth growth behavior, namely linear growth (constant growth above zero), was further introduced to add more flexibility to the framework. An R Shiny application was developed, which can be accessed at http://www.theguarani.com.br/covid-19 or downloaded from https://github.com/adamtaiti/SARS-CoV-2. The framework was applied to data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which comprised 853,200 cases reported worldwide as of April 2nd 2020. Results: We found that the impact of public health measures on the prevalence of COVID-19 could be perceived in seemingly real-time by monitoring growth acceleration curves. Restriction to human mobility produced detectable decline in growth acceleration within few days, deceleration within ~2 weeks and near-stationary growth within ~6 weeks. Countries exhibiting different permutations of the five growth stages indicated that the evolution of COVID-19 prevalence is more complex and dynamic than previously appreciated. Conclusions: These results corroborate that mass social isolation is a highly effective measure against the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2, as previously suggested. Apart from the analysis of prevalence partitioned by country, the proposed framework is easily applicable to city, state, region and arbitrary territory data, serving as an asset to monitor the local behavior of COVID-19 cases.
has issue date	2020-04-02(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.03.30.20047688
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	0d0bb3af5f5665e4b529c7307b56ea40202ebc5d
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047688
resource representing a document's title	Growth rate and acceleration analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the effect of public health measures in real time
resource representing a document's body	covid:0d0bb3af5f5665e4b529c7307b56ea40202ebc5d#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'EFFECT' named entity 'detectable' named entity 'SARS-CoV-2' named entity 'impact' named entity 'acceleration' named entity 'region' named entity 'corroborate' named entity 'public health' named entity 'SEVERE' named entity 'TO HELP' named entity 'RESTRICTION' named entity 'RESULTS' named entity '1 WEEK' named entity 'PREVENTIVE' named entity 'UP TO' named entity 'PREDICTIONS' named entity 'USED' named entity 'MOVING' named entity 'EASILY' named entity 'SOUTH KOREA' named entity 'IS A' named entity 'PREVALENCE' named entity 'GROWTH' named entity 'REGION' named entity 'CASES' named entity 'LOCAL' named entity 'REAL TIME' named entity 'PUBLIC HEALTH' named entity 'GROWTH RATE' named entity 'NEW' named entity 'EVALUATED' named entity 'COUNTRIES' named entity 'HIGHLY' named entity 'DETECTABLE' named entity 'COULD BE' named entity 'ANALYSIS' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'ACCELERATION' named entity 'HUMAN MOBILITY' named entity 'MONITORING' named entity 'ACCELERATION' named entity 'CITY' named entity 'ADOPTED' named entity 'STATIONARY' named entity 'COVID-19' named entity 'ARBITRARY' named entity 'FOUND' named entity 'OBTAINED' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'MASS' named entity 'REAL-TIME' named entity 'GROWTH RATE' named entity 'TERRITORY' named entity 'MEASURE' named entity 'EFFECTIVE' named entity 'APPLIED' named entity 'DAILY' named entity 'DATA' named entity 'ANALYSIS' named entity 'COUNTRY' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'DECELERATION' named entity 'DISSEMINATION' named entity 'SOCIAL ISOLATION' named entity 'BEHAVIOR' named entity 'MEASURES' named entity 'REGRESSION' named entity 'APART' named entity 'PUBLIC HEALTH' named entity 'MARCH' named entity '6 WEEKS' named entity '2 WEEKS' named entity 'OBSERVABLE' named entity 'THESE' named entity 'DECLINE' named entity 'REVEALS' named entity 'SARS-COV-2'

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