About: Mortality from COVID in Colombia and Peru: Analyses of Mortality Data and Statistical Forecasts

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An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Mortality from COVID in Colombia and Peru: Analyses of Mortality Data and Statistical Forecasts
Creator	Brown, Patrick Dphil, Jha Luis, Ernesto Jha, Gelband, Jeremy Greenwald, Zoë Martens, Leslie Mhs, Gelband Msa, Rodriguez New-Combe, Peter Newcombe Bsc, L Rodriguez, Hellen Salinas, Gabriel Veillard, J Veillard, Prabhat
Source	MedRxiv
abstract	National predictions of the course of COVID mortality can be used to plan for effective healthcare responses as well as to support COVID policymaking. We developed the Global COVID Assessment of Mortality (GCAM), a statistical model with continually improving precision that combines actual mortality counts with Bayesian inference, to predict COVID trends, currently until December 1, 2020. In Colombia, the GCAM analysis found the peak of COVID mortality around August 12 and an expected total of COVID deaths of 24,000-31,000, or 48%-92% over the total through August 21. In Peru, a first mortality peak occurred around May 24, and given the current trajectory, a second peak is predicted around September 6. Peru can expect 29,000-43,000 COVID deaths, representing an increase of 7%-55% over COVID deaths through August 21. GCAM projections are also used to estimate medical surge capacity needs. To gauge the reliability of COVID mortality forecasts, we compared all-cause mortality from January through June 2020 with average all-cause mortality in previous years in Colombia and Peru, and found that the excesses were consistent with GCAM forecast, most notably a doubling of overall mortality from May 25-June 7th of weeks in Peru. The GCAM results predict that as a percentage of all adult deaths in previous years, Colombia can expect about 13% excess from COVID deaths, whereas Peru can expect 34% excess. Comparisons of GCAM analyses of several other countries with Colombia and Peru demonstrate the extreme variability that characterizes COVID mortality around the world, emphasizing the need for country-specific analyses and ongoing monitoring as more mortality data become available.
has issue date	2020-08-26(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.08.24.20181016
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	0545e44b0009d5597035fe2886cd8b8d316594a1
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20181016
resource representing a document's title	Mortality from COVID in Colombia and Peru: Analyses of Mortality Data and Statistical Forecasts
resource representing a document's body	covid:0545e44b0009d5597035fe2886cd8b8d316594a1#body_text
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