About: Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm

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About: Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm
Creator	Li, Jing Wang, Lishi Ji, Jiafu Cao, Yanhong Day, Sara Graff, J Gu, Tianshu Gu, Weikuan Guo, Sumin Howard, Scott Sun, Dianjun Xie, Ning Yao, Lan
Source	Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	Abstract The global COVID-19 outbreak is worrisome both for its high rate of spread, and the high case fatality rate reported by early studies and now in Italy. We report a new methodology, the Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA), for estimating the death rate of a disease in real-time using publicly available data collected during an outbreak. PIBA estimated the death rate based on data of the patients in Wuhan and then in other cities throughout China. The estimated days from hospital admission to death was 13 (standard deviation (SD), 6 days). The death rates based on PIBA were used to predict the daily numbers of deaths since the week of February 25, 2020, in China overall, Hubei province, Wuhan city, and the rest of the country except Hubei province. The death rate of COVID-19 ranges from 0.75% to 3% and may decrease in the future. The results showed that the real death numbers had fallen into the predicted ranges. In addition, using the preliminary data from China, the PIBA method was successfully used to estimate the death rate and predict the death numbers of the Korean population. In conclusion, PIBA can be used to efficiently estimate the death rate of a new infectious disease in real-time and to predict future deaths. The spread of 2019-nCoV and its case fatality rate may vary in regions with different climates and temperatures from Hubei and Wuhan. PIBA model can be built based on known information of early patients in different countries.
has issue date	2020-07-20(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138394
bibo:pmid	32334207
has license	els-covid
sha1sum (hex)	c9158fe6d733da424d2c8441211c19865b763115
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138394
resource representing a document's title	Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7139242
has PubMed identifier	32334207
schema:publication	Science of The Total Environment
resource representing a document's body	covid:c9158fe6d733da424d2c8441211c19865b763115#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'death rate' named entity 'model' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'prediction' named entity 'EXCEPT' named entity 'REPORT' named entity 'SPREAD' named entity 'ALGORITHM' named entity 'CONCLUSION' named entity 'DAILY' named entity 'DEATH' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'numbers' named entity 'February 25' named entity 'methodology' named entity 'patients' named entity 'numbers' named entity 'standard deviation' named entity 'Science' named entity 'mortality' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'case fatality rate' named entity 'Italy' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'patient information' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'ICU' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'mainland China' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'Holistic' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'case fatality' named entity 'Hubei' named entity 'Xiaogan' named entity 'Standard deviation' named entity 'Harbin' named entity 'coronavirus' named entity 'Huanggang' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'mainland China' named entity 'blue color' named entity 'toxicity' named entity 'personal relationships' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'Hubei Province' named entity 'normal distribution' named entity 'death rates' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Heilongjiang' named entity 'case fatality' named entity 'medical conditions' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'Health Commission' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'ethnic group' named entity 'ICU' named entity 'death rate' named entity 'representative sample' named entity 'Wuhan' named entity 'infection' named entity 'critically ill' named entity 'normal distribution' named entity 'Japan' named entity 'asymptomatic' named entity 'death rates'

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