About: COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility

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About: COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility
Creator	Ng, Gui, Gui, Meei Kok, Yew Ng, Meei
Source	ArXiv; Elsevier; Medline; PMC
abstract	The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current pandemic. Such simulations enable early indications on the future projections of the pandemic and is useful to estimate the efficiency of control action in the battle against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The SEIR model is a well-known method used in computational simulations of infectious viral diseases and it has been widely used to model other epidemics such as Ebola, SARS, MERS, and influenza A. This paper presents a modified SEIRS model with additional exit conditions in the form of death rates and resusceptibility, where we can tune the exit conditions in the model to extend prediction on the current projections of the pandemic into three possible outcomes; death, recovery, and recovery with a possibility of resusceptibility. The model also considers specific information such as ageing factor of the population, time delay on the development of the pandemic due to control action measures, as well as resusceptibility with temporal immune response. Owing to huge variations in clinical symptoms exhibited by COVID-19, the proposed model aims to reflect better on the current scenario and case data reported, such that the spread of the disease and the efficiency of the control action taken can be better understood. The model is verified using two case studies for verification and prediction studies, based on the real-world data in South Korea and Northern Ireland, respectively.
has issue date	2020-06-09(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1016/j.physd.2020.132599
bibo:pmid	32536738
has license	no-cc
sha1sum (hex)	a30c734b69e59876e51462833aefdc2636d5003f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132599
resource representing a document's title	COVID-19: Development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7282799
has PubMed identifier	32536738
schema:publication	Physica D
resource representing a document's body	covid:a30c734b69e59876e51462833aefdc2636d5003f#body_text
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