About: Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

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About: Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model
Creator	Gardner, Emma Spence, Kelsey Greer, Amy
Source	Medline; PMC
abstract	BACKGROUND: The United States swine industry was first confronted with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in 2013. In young pigs, the virus is highly pathogenic and the associated morbidity and mortality has a significant negative impact on the swine industry. We have applied the IDEA model to better understand the 2014 PEDV outbreak in Ontario, Canada. Using our simple, 2-parameter IDEA model, we have evaluated the early epidemic dynamics of PEDV on Ontario swine farms. RESULTS: We estimated the best-fit R(0) and control parameter (d) for the between farm transmission component of the outbreak by fitting the model to publically available cumulative incidence data. We used maximum likelihood to compare model fit estimates for different combinations of the R(0) and d parameters. Using our initial findings from the iterative fitting procedure, we projected the time course of the epidemic using only a subset of the early epidemic data. The IDEA model projections showed excellent agreement with the observed data based on a 7-day generation time estimate. The best-fit estimate for R(0) was 1.87 (95% CI: 1.52 – 2.34) and for the control parameter (d) was 0.059 (95% CI: 0.022 – 0.117). Using data from the first three generations of the outbreak, our iterative fitting procedure suggests that R(0) and d had stabilized sufficiently to project the time course of the outbreak with reasonable accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The emergence and spread of PEDV represents an important agricultural emergency. The virus presents a significant ongoing threat to the Canadian swine industry. Developing an understanding of the important epidemiological characteristics and disease transmission dynamics of a novel pathogen such as PEDV is critical for helping to guide the implementation of effective, efficient, and economically feasible disease control and prevention strategies that are able to help decrease the impact of an outbreak.
has issue date	2017-01-05(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1186/s12917-016-0922-2
bibo:pmid	28056953
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	7e4905089dd52ffd586f780d272e2cd951457196
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-016-0922-2
resource representing a document's title	Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC5217418
has PubMed identifier	28056953
schema:publication	BMC Vet Res
resource representing a document's body	covid:7e4905089dd52ffd586f780d272e2cd951457196#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'INDUSTRY' named entity 'NEGATIVE' named entity 'USING' named entity 'CANADA' named entity 'IDEA' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'EPIDEMIC' named entity 'UNITED STATES' named entity 'OUR' named entity 'ONTARIO' named entity 'PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA VIRUS' named entity 'evaluated' named entity 'virus' named entity 'Ontario' named entity 'outbreak' named entity '2014' named entity 'ADJUSTMENT' named entity 'MODEL' named entity 'PIGS' named entity 'FARMS' named entity 'PARAMETER' named entity 'IMPACT' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'YOUNG' named entity 'EVALUATED' named entity 'HIGHLY' named entity 'DYNAMICS' named entity 'EXPONENTIAL' named entity 'OUTBREAK' named entity 'UNDERSTANDING' named entity 'PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA VIRUS' named entity 'USING' named entity 'DECAY' named entity 'INCIDENCE' named entity 'ONTARIO' named entity 'MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY' named entity 'PATHOGENIC' named entity 'UNDERSTAND' named entity 'SWINE' named entity 'HAVE' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'SIGNIFICANT' named entity 'BETTER' named entity 'APPLIED' named entity 'VIRUS' named entity 'DYNAMICS' named entity 'EARLY' named entity 'ASSOCIATED' named entity 'BACKGROUND' named entity 'SIMPLE' covid:arg/7e4905089dd52ffd586f780d272e2cd951457196 named entity 'Canada' named entity 'pathogenic' named entity 'mortality' named entity 'virus' named entity 'porcine epidemic diarrhea virus' named entity 'Ontario' named entity 'pigs' named entity 'cumulative incidence' named entity 'pathogen' named entity 'disease control' named entity 'biosecurity' named entity 'anorexia' named entity 'porcine' named entity 'immune status' named entity 'virus' named entity 'PEDV' named entity 'diarrhea' named entity 'generation time' named entity 'generation time' named entity 'southwestern Ontario' named entity 'PEDV' named entity '95% CI' named entity 'situational awareness' named entity 'incubation period' named entity 'PEDV' named entity 'disease transmission' named entity 'PEDV' named entity 'wean'

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