About: Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19

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About: Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19 Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

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type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
title	Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19
Creator	Bianco, Simone Hu, Kun Kaufman, James Schwartz, Ira
source	MedRxiv
abstract	We introduce a novel mathematical model to analyze the effect of removing non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID19 as a function of disease testing rate. We find that relaxing interventions has a strong impact on the size of the epidemic peak as a function of intervention re- moval time. We show that it is essential for predictive models to explicitly capture transmission from asymptomatic carriers and important to obtain precise information on asymptomatic transmission by testing. The asymptomatic reservoir, reported to account for as much as 85% of transmission, will contribute to resurgence of the epidemic if public health interventions are removed too soon. Use of more basic models that fail to capture asymptomatic transmission can result in large errors in predicted clinical caseload or in fitted epidemiological parameters and, therefore, may be unreliable in estimating the risk of a second wave based on the timing of terminated interventions.
has issue date	2020-04-22(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.04.16.20068387
has license	medrxiv
sha1sum (hex)	220ade47ef4ba847e55fb3ab7556ce3533ff66ca
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.16.20068387
resource representing a document's title	Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19
resource representing a document's body	covid:220ade47ef4ba847e55fb3ab7556ce3533ff66ca#body_text
is schema:about of	named entity 'peak' named entity 'public health' named entity 'function' named entity 'asymptomatic carriers' named entity 'Predicting' »more»

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