About: Moving Beyond a Peak Mentality: Plateaus, Shoulders, Oscillations and Other ‘Anomalous’ Behavior-Driven Shapes in COVID-19 Outbreaks

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About: Moving Beyond a Peak Mentality: Plateaus, Shoulders, Oscillations and Other ‘Anomalous’ Behavior-Driven Shapes in COVID-19 Outbreaks Goto Sponge NotDistinct Permalink

An Entity of Type : schema:ScholarlyArticle, within Data Space : covidontheweb.inria.fr associated with source document(s)

Attributes	Values
type	Academic Article research paper schema:ScholarlyArticle
isDefinedBy	Covid-on-the-Web dataset
has title	Moving Beyond a Peak Mentality: Plateaus, Shoulders, Oscillations and Other ‘Anomalous’ Behavior-Driven Shapes in COVID-19 Outbreaks
Creator	Dushoff, Jonathan Eksin, Ceyhun Park, Sang Weitz, Joshua
Source	MedRxiv; Medline; PMC
abstract	The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 300,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 83,000 have been reported in the United States as of May 16, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions (both at national and local levels) the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in some cases, to be consistent with plateau- or shoulder-like phenomena. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, epidemic dynamics can be characterized by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations after exponential rises at the outset of disease dynamics. We also show that incorporating long-term awareness can avoid peak resurgence and accelerate epidemic decline. We suggest that awareness of epidemic severity is likely to play a critical role in disease dynamics, beyond that imposed by intervention-driven policies.
has issue date	2020-05-19(xsd:dateTime)
bibo:doi	10.1101/2020.05.03.20089524
bibo:pmid	32511479
has license	cc-by
sha1sum (hex)	2145c208117f003c7bd208b6511c3cc8ab086f6f
schema:url	https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089524
resource representing a document's title	Moving Beyond a Peak Mentality: Plateaus, Shoulders, Oscillations and Other ‘Anomalous’ Behavior-Driven Shapes in COVID-19 Outbreaks
has PubMed Central identifier	PMC7273247
has PubMed identifier	32511479
schema:publication	medRxiv
resource representing a document's body	covid:2145c208117f003c7bd208b6511c3cc8ab086f6f#body_text
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